相关论文: Mutation induced infection waves in diseases like …
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…
Applying a ML approach to the temporal variability of the Spike protein sequence enables us to identify, classify and track emerging virus variants. Our analysis is unbiased, in the sense that it does not require any prior knowledge of the…
This study releases an adaptable framework that can provide insights to policymakers to predict the complex recurring waves of the pandemic in the medium postemergence of the virus spread, a phase marked by rapidly changing factors like…
The crisis caused by the COVID-19 outbreak around the globe raised an increasing concern about the ongoing emergence of variants of SARS-CoV-2 that may evade the immune response provided by vaccines. New variants appear due to mutation, and…
The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
At the end of 2020, policy responses to the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak have been shaken by the emergence of virus variants. The emergence of these more contagious, more severe, or even vaccine-resistant strains have challenged worldwide policy…
A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…
We consider multiple diseases spreading in a static Configuration Model network. We make standard assumptions that infection transmits from neighbor to neighbor at a disease-specific rate and infected individuals recover at a…
COVID-19 pandemic is one of the major disasters that humanity has ever faced. In this paper, we try to model the effect of vaccination in controlling the pandemic, particularly in context to the third wave which is predicted to hit…
Classically, endemic infectious diseases are expected to display relatively stable, predictable infection dynamics. Accordingly, basic disease models such as the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model display stable endemic states…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
The contact structure of a population plays an important role in transmission of infection. Many ``structured models'' capture aspects of the contact structure through an underlying network or a mixing matrix. An important observation in…
In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction…
The outbreak of mutant strains and vaccination behaviors have been the focus of recent epidemiological research, but most existing epidemic models failed to simultaneously capture viral mutation and consider the complexity and behavioral…
A primary quantity of interest in the study of infectious diseases is the average number of new infections that an infected person produces. This so-called reproduction number has significant implications for the disease progression. There…
Qatar has undergone distinct waves of COVID-19 infections, compounded by the emergence of variants, posing additional complexities. This research uniquely delves into the varied efficacy of existing vaccines and the pivotal role of…
Since December 2020, variants of COVID-19 (especially Delta and Omicron) appeared with different characteristics that influenced death and transmissibility emerged around the world. To address the novel dynamics of the disease, we propose a…