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The elicitation of power priors, based on the availability of historical data, is realized by raising the likelihood function of the historical data to a fractional power {\delta}, which quantifies the degree of discounting of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-13 Keying Ye , Zifei Han , Yuyan Duan , Tianyu Bai

Power priors are used for incorporating historical data in Bayesian analyses by taking the likelihood of the historical data raised to the power $\alpha$ as the prior distribution for the model parameters. The power parameter $\alpha$ is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-27 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The likelihood of the original study's data is raised to the power…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-28 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

The power prior is a popular class of informative priors for incorporating information from historical data. It involves raising the likelihood for the historical data to a power, which acts as discounting parameter. When the discounting…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-09 Yueqi Shen , Luiz M. Carvalho , Matthew A. Psioda , Joseph G. Ibrahim

The power prior is a class of informative priors designed to incorporate historical data alongside current data in a Bayesian framework. It includes a power parameter that controls the influence of historical data, providing flexibility and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-23 Masanari Kimura , Howard Bondell

The power prior is a popular tool for constructing informative prior distributions based on historical data. The method consists of raising the likelihood to a discounting factor in order to control the amount of information borrowed from…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-03-29 Luiz Max Carvalho , Joseph G. Ibrahim

We propose a score-based generative algorithm for sampling from power-scaled priors and likelihoods within the Bayesian inference framework. Our algorithm enables flexible control over prior-likelihood influence without requiring retraining…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-03 Huseyin Tuna Erdinc , Yunlin Zeng , Abhinav Prakash Gahlot , Felix J. Herrmann

Bayesian approaches to data analysis and machine learning are widespread and popular as they provide intuitive yet rigorous axioms for learning from data; see Bernardo and Smith (2004) and Bishop (2006). However, this rigour comes with a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-01-31 Chris Holmes , Stephen Walker

The statistical evidence (or marginal likelihood) is a key quantity in Bayesian statistics, allowing one to assess the probability of the data given the model under investigation. This paper focuses on refining the power posterior approach…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-06-14 Nial Friel , Merrilee Hurn , Jason Wyse

Expected-posterior priors (EPP) have been proved to be extremely useful for testing hypothesis on the regression coefficients of normal linear models. One of the advantages of using EPPs is that impropriety of baseline priors causes no…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-12-02 Dimitris Fouskakis , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Use of historical control data to augment a small internal control arm in a randomized control trial (RCT) can lead to significant improvement of the efficiency of the trial. It introduces the risk of potential bias, since the historical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-05 Jixian Wang , Hongtao Zhang , Ram Tiwari

The use of objective prior in Bayesian applications has become a common practice to analyze data without subjective information. Formal rules usually obtain these priors distributions, and the data provide the dominant information in the…

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-11-22 Andrew Gelman , Daniel Simpson , Michael Betancourt

Bayesian sparse factor models have proven useful for characterizing dependence in multivariate data, but scaling computation to large numbers of samples and dimensions is problematic. We propose expandable factor analysis for scalable…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-06-21 Sanvesh Srivastava , Barbara E. Engelhardt , David B. Dunson

Determining the sensitivity of the posterior to perturbations of the prior and likelihood is an important part of the Bayesian workflow. We introduce a practical and computationally efficient sensitivity analysis approach using importance…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-05 Noa Kallioinen , Topi Paananen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

Bayes factors for composite hypotheses have difficulty in encoding vague prior knowledge, as improper priors cannot be used and objective priors may be subjectively unreasonable. To address these issues I revisit the posterior Bayes factor,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-29 Frank Dudbridge

The reproducibility crisis has led to an increasing number of replication studies being conducted. Sample sizes for replication studies are often calculated using conditional power based on the effect estimate from the original study.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-19 Charlotte Micheloud , Leonhard Held

There is growing interest in Bayesian clinical trial designs with informative prior distributions, e.g. for extrapolation of adult data to pediatrics, or use of external controls. While the classical type I error is commonly used to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-06 Nicky Best , Maxine Ajimi , Beat Neuenschwander , Gaelle Saint-Hilary , Simon Wandel

In the Bayesian framework power prior distributions are increasingly adopted in clinical trials and similar studies to incorporate external and past information, typically to inform the parameter associated to a treatment effect. Their use…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-12 Roberto Macrì Demartino , Leonardo Egidi , Nicola Torelli , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Bayesian parameter inference depends on a choice of prior probability distribution for the parameters in question. The prior which makes the posterior distribution maximally sensitive to data is called the Jeffreys prior, and it is…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2019-02-25 Steen Hannestad , Thomas Tram
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