相关论文: Bayesian Control Variates for optimal covariance e…

The covariance matrix $\boldsymbol{\Sigma}$ of non-linear clustering statistics that are measured in current and upcoming surveys is of fundamental interest for comparing cosmological theory and data and a crucial ingredient for the…

To exploit the power of next-generation large-scale structure surveys, ensembles of numerical simulations are necessary to give accurate theoretical predictions of the statistics of observables. High-fidelity simulations come at a towering…

Surrogate models are used to alleviate the computational burden in engineering tasks, which require the repeated evaluation of computationally demanding models of physical systems, such as the efficient propagation of uncertainties. For…

We present a hybrid sampling-surrogate approach for reducing the computational expense of uncertainty quantification in nonlinear dynamical systems. Our motivation is to enable rapid uncertainty quantification in complex mechanical systems…

The present paper proposes a Bayesian framework for inverse problems that seamlessly integrates optimization and inversion to enable rapid surrogate modeling, accurate parameter inference, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Bayesian…

Accurate and precise covariance matrices will be important in enabling planned cosmological surveys to detect new physics. Standard methods imply either the need for many N-body simulations in order to obtain an accurate estimate, or a…

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

In this paper, we propose a scalable Bayesian method for sparse covariance matrix estimation by incorporating a continuous shrinkage prior with a screening procedure. In the first step of the procedure, the off-diagonal elements with small…

Motivated by the increasing use of and rapid changes in array technologies, we consider the prediction problem of fitting a linear regression relating a continuous outcome $Y$ to a large number of covariates $\mathbf {X}$, for example,…

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a…

Solving inverse problems in cardiovascular modeling is particularly challenging due to the high computational cost of running high-fidelity simulations. In this work, we focus on Bayesian parameter estimation and explore different methods…

Bayesian optimization has been shown to be a powerful tool for solving black box problems during online accelerator optimization. The major advantage of Bayesian based optimization techniques is the ability to include prior information…

The Bayesian approach to inverse problems typically relies on posterior sampling approaches, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, for which the generation of each sample requires one or more evaluations of the parameter-to-observable map or…

Bayesian Optimization is a popular approach for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Its key idea is to use a surrogate model to approximate the objective and, importantly, quantify the associated uncertainty that allows a sequential…

Data assimilation is widely used to improve flood forecasting capability, especially through parameter inference requiring statistical information on the uncertain input parameters (upstream discharge, friction coefficient) as well as on…

An efficient algorithm is proposed for Bayesian model calibration, which is commonly used to estimate the model parameters of non-linear, computationally expensive models using measurement data. The approach is based on Bayesian statistics:…

Hyperparameter tuning is a challenging problem especially when the system itself involves uncertainty. Due to noisy function evaluations, optimization under uncertainty can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a novel…

Monte Carlo integration becomes prohibitively expensive when each sample requires a high-fidelity model evaluation. Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification methods mitigate this by combining estimators from high- and low-fidelity models,…

The estimation of unknown values of parameters (or hidden variables, control variables) that characterise a physical system often relies on the comparison of measured data with synthetic data produced by some numerical simulator of the…