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We propose an approach to approximate the boundary crossing probabilities for general one-dimensional diffusion processes, and derive the convergence rate for this approximation scheme. There results are based on the explicit expression of…

概率论 · 数学 2015-10-28 Jinghai Shao , Liqun Wang

Significant wave height forecasting is a key problem in ocean data analytics. This task affects several maritime operations, such as managing the passage of vessels or estimating the energy production from waves. In this work, we focus on…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-07 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo

The problem of sampling according to the probability distribution minimizing a given free energy, using interacting particles unadjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo, is addressed. In this setting, three sources of error arise, related to…

概率论 · 数学 2024-12-05 Pierre Monmarché , Katharina Schuh

Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for the design of offshore and coastal facilities. The joint effect of various ocean variables on extreme responses of offshore…

应用统计 · 统计学 2012-11-07 Kevin Ewans , Philip Jonathan

Dynamic quantiles, or Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) models, have been extensively studied at the individual level. However, efforts to estimate multiple dynamic quantiles jointly have been limited. Existing approaches…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2025-01-22 Tibor Szendrei

In solving a system of $n$ linear equations in $d$ variables $Ax=b$, the condition number of the $n,d$ matrix $A$ measures how much errors in the data $b$ affect the solution $x$. Estimates of this type are important in many inverse…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-04-29 Tomaso Poggio , Gil Kur , Andrzej Banburski

Many varieties of cross validation would be statistically appealing for the estimation of smoothing and other penalized regression hyperparameters, were it not for the high cost of evaluating such criteria. Here it is shown how to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-06 Simon N. Wood

The broad concept of emergence is instrumental in various of the most challenging open scientific questions -- yet, few quantitative theories of what constitutes emergent phenomena have been proposed. This article introduces a formal theory…

Floating offshore structures often exhibit low-frequency oscillatory motions in the horizontal plane, with amplitudes in the same order as their characteristic dimensions and larger than the corresponding wave-frequency responses, making…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2021-10-07 Yanlin Shao , Zhiping Zheng , Hui Liang , Jikang Chen

The upcrossings index $0\leq \eta\leq 1,$ a measure of the degree of local dependence in the upcrossings of a high level by a stationary process, plays, together with the extremal index $\theta,$ an important role in extreme events…

概率论 · 数学 2015-08-04 Ana Paula Martins , João Renato Sebastião

High dimensional covariance estimation and graphical models is a contemporary topic in statistics and machine learning having widespread applications. An important line of research in this regard is to shrink the extreme spectrum of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-06-28 Sang-Yun Oh , Bala Rajaratnam , Joong-Ho Won

Monitoring time-dependence with diffusion MRI yields observables sensitive to compartment sizes (restricted diffusion) and membrane permeability (water exchange). However, restricted diffusion and exchange have opposite effects on the…

Multivariate geostatistics is based on modelling all covariances between all possible combinations of two or more variables at any sets of locations in a continuously indexed domain. Multivariate spatial covariance models need to be built…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-10-10 Noel Cressie , Andrew Zammit-Mangion

The aim of this paper is to discuss both higher-order asymptotic expansions and skewed approximations for the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure for testing precise statistical hypotheses. In particular, we derive results on third-order…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-02 Elena Bortolato , Francesco Bertolino , Monica Musio , Laura Ventura

Probability density functions and conditional averages of velocity gradients derived from upper ocean observations are compared with results from forced simulations of the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations. Ocean data are derived from…

统计力学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Norbert Schorghofer , Sarah T. Gille

The subject of this paper is the elucidation of effects of actions from causal assumptions represented as a directed graph, and statistical knowledge given as a probability distribution. In particular, we are interested in predicting…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-07-02 Ilya Shpitser , Judea Pearl

This work addresses the problem of estimating the parameters of the general half-normal distribution. Namely, the problem of determining the minimum risk equi\-va\-riant (MRE) estimators of the parameters is explored. Simulation studies are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-28 A. G. Nogales , P. Pérez , P. Monfort

Spectrograms provide an efficient way to analyse surface elevation signals of ship waves taken from a sensor fixed at a single point in space. Recent work based on a simplified model for the ship's disturbance suggests that matching the…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2021-10-20 Ravindra Pethiyagoda , Timothy J Moroney , Gregor J Macfarlane , Scott W McCue

Cross-validation is a common method for estimating the predictive performance of machine learning models. In a data-scarce regime, where one typically wishes to maximize the number of instances used for training the model, an approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-25 George I. Austin , Itsik Pe'er , Tal Korem

A series of recent articles introduced a method to construct stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) which are invariant with respect to the distribution of a given conditioned diffusion. These works are restricted to the case of…

概率论 · 数学 2011-04-08 Martin Hairer , Andrew M. Stuart , Jochen Voss