相关论文: Flood hazard model calibration using multiresoluti…

In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…

Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…

Intense precipitation events are commonly known to be associated with an increased risk of flooding. As a result of the societal and infrastructural risks linked with flooding, extremes of precipitation require careful modelling. Extreme…

Tackling the difficult problem of estimating spatially distributed hydrological parameters, especially for floods on ungauged watercourses, this contribution presents a novel seamless regionalization technique for learning complex regional…

How will the climate system respond to anthropogenic forcings? One approach to this question relies on climate model projections. Current climate projections are considerably uncertain. Characterizing and, if possible, reducing this…

Risk communication seeks to develop a shared understanding of disaster among stakeholders, thereby amplifying public awareness and empowering them to respond more effectively to emergencies. However, existing studies have overemphasized…

As governments race to implement new climate adaptation policies that prepare for more frequent flooding, they must seek policies that are effective for all communities and uphold climate justice. This requires evaluating policies not only…

Satellite remote sensing presents a cost-effective solution for synoptic flood monitoring, and satellite-derived flood maps provide a computationally efficient alternative to numerical flood inundation models traditionally used. While…

Urban flood risk emerges from complex and nonlinear interactions among multiple features related to flood hazard, flood exposure, and social and physical vulnerabilities, along with the complex spatial flood dependence relationships.…

In computational mechanics, multiple models are often present to describe a physical system. While Bayesian model selection is a helpful tool to compare these models using measurement data, it requires the computationally expensive…

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but…

Uncertainty quantification is critical for ensuring robustness in high-stakes machine learning applications. We introduce HybridFlow, a modular hybrid architecture that unifies the modeling of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty by…

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than…

Flood frequency analysis is usually based on the fitting of an extreme value distribution to the local streamflow series. However, when the local data series is short, frequency analysis results become unreliable. Regional frequency…

We propose a framework that estimates inundation depth (maximum water level) and debris-flow-induced topographic deformation from remote sensing imagery by integrating deep learning and numerical simulation. A water and debris flow…

Urban flooding in arid regions poses severe risks to infrastructure and communities. Accurate, fine-scale mapping of flood extents and recovery trajectories is therefore essential for improving emergency response and resilience planning.…

Delay embedding---a method for reconstructing dynamical systems by delay coordinates---is widely used to forecast nonlinear time series as a model-free approach. When multivariate time series are observed, several existing frameworks can be…

Ecosystem approach to fisheries requires a thorough understanding of fishing impacts on ecosystem status and processes as well as predictive tools such as ecosystem models to provide useful information for management. The credibility of…

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Parameter calibration is essential for reducing uncertainty and improving predictive fidelity in physics-based models, yet it is often limited by the high computational cost of model evaluations. Bayesian calibration methods provide a…