相关论文: Flood hazard model calibration using multiresoluti…

In recent years, climate extremes such as floods have created significant environmental and economic hazards for Australia. Deep learning methods have been promising for predicting extreme climate events; however, large flooding events…

There is wide agreement that the accuracy of turbulence models suffer from their sensitivity with respect to physical input data, the uncertainties of user-elected parameters, as well as the model inadequacy. However, the application of…

High-fidelity scale-resolving simulations of turbulent flows quickly become prohibitively expensive, especially at high Reynolds numbers. As a remedy, we may use multifidelity models (MFM) to construct predictive models for flow quantities…

As the frontiers of applied statistics progress through increasingly complex experiments we must exploit increasingly sophisticated inferential models to analyze the observations we make. In order to avoid misleading or outright erroneous…

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current…

We develop a Bayesian approach called Bayesian projected calibration to address the problem of calibrating an imperfect computer model using observational data from a complex physical system. The calibration parameter and the physical…

Decisions on how to manage future flood risks are frequently informed by both sophisticated and computationally expensive models. This complexity often limits the representation of uncertainties and the consideration of strategies. Here, we…

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at…

Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…

Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use…

This paper presents a forecasting model designed using WSNs (Wireless Sensor Networks) to predict flood in rivers using simple and fast calculations to provide real-time results and save the lives of people who may be affected by the flood.…

Surrogate models are often used to replace costly-to-evaluate complex coastal codes to achieve substantial computational savings. In many of those models, the hydrometeorological forcing conditions (inputs) or flood events (outputs) are…

Simulating and predicting the water level/stage in river systems is essential for flood warnings, hydraulic operations, and flood mitigations. Physics-based detailed hydrological and hydraulic computational tools, such as HEC-RAS, MIKE, and…

Driver monitoring systems require not just high accuracy but reliable, well-calibrated confidence scores for safety-critical deployment. While direct low-resolution training yields high overall accuracy, it produces poorly calibrated…

Real-time satellite imaging has a central role in monitoring, detecting and estimating the intensity of key natural phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, etc. One important constraint of satellite imaging is the trade-off between…

In the context of the usual calibration model, we consider the case in which the independent variable is unobservable, but a pre-fixed value on its surrogate is available. Thus, considering controlled variables and assuming that the…

Model calibration consists of using experimental or field data to estimate the unknown parameters of a mathematical model. The presence of model discrepancy and measurement bias in the data complicates this task. Satellite interferograms,…

Flood hazard assessment demands fast and accurate predictions. Hydrodynamic models are detailed but computationally intensive, making them impractical for quantifying uncertainty or identifying extremes. In contrast, machine learning…

In causal inference, sensitivity models assess how unmeasured confounders could alter causal analyses, but the sensitivity parameter -- which quantifies the degree of unmeasured confounding -- is often difficult to interpret. For this…

Earth system models inform water policy and interventions, but knowledge gaps in hydrologic representations limit the credibility of projections and impacts assessments. The literature does not provide conclusive evidence that incorporating…