相关论文: Taming the Long Tail of Deep Probabilistic Forecas…

Accurate modeling of daily rainfall, encompassing both dry and wet days as well as extreme precipitation events, is critical for robust hydrological and climatological analyses. This study proposes a zero-inflated extended generalized…

It was observed that the number of cases and deaths for infectious diseases were associated with heavy-tailed power law distributions such as the Pareto distribution. While Pareto distribution was widely used to model the cases and deaths…

Long-tailed relation classification is a challenging problem as the head classes may dominate the training phase, thereby leading to the deterioration of the tail performance. Existing solutions usually address this issue via…

Deep learning algorithms are well-known to have a propensity for fitting the training data very well and often fit even outliers and mislabeled data points. Such fitting requires memorization of training data labels, a phenomenon that has…

We investigate the use of optimization to compute bounds for extremal performance measures. This approach takes a non-parametric viewpoint that aims to alleviate the issue of model misspecification possibly encountered by conventional…

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its practical significance. Among the various approaches, the fine-tuning paradigm has gained considerable interest with the advent of foundation models. However, most existing…

We benchmark the robustness of maximum likelihood based uncertainty estimation methods to outliers in training data for regression tasks. Outliers or noisy labels in training data results in degraded performances as well as incorrect…

We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…

This paper studies distributed estimation and support recovery for high-dimensional linear regression model with heavy-tailed noise. To deal with heavy-tailed noise whose variance can be infinite, we adopt the quantile regression loss…

The task for a general and useful classification of the tail behaviors of probability distributions still has no satisfactory solution. Due to lack of information outside the range of the data the tails of the distribution should be…

At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

In high-dimensional statistics, the Lasso is a cornerstone method for simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation. However, its reliance on the squared loss function renders it highly sensitive to outliers and heavy-tailed…

Accurately predicting the future trajectories of traffic agents is essential in autonomous driving. However, due to the inherent imbalance in trajectory distributions, tail data in natural datasets often represents more complex and…

We discuss an approach to probabilistic forecasting based on two chained machine-learning steps: a dimensional reduction step that learns a reduction map of predictor information to a low-dimensional space in a manner designed to preserve…

Data subject to heavy-tailed errors are commonly encountered in various scientific fields, especially in the modern era with explosion of massive data. To address this problem, procedures based on quantile regression and Least Absolute…

The study of online algorithms with machine-learned predictions has gained considerable prominence in recent years. One of the common objectives in the design and analysis of such algorithms is to attain (Pareto) optimal tradeoffs between…

Object frequency in the real world often follows a power law, leading to a mismatch between datasets with long-tailed class distributions seen by a machine learning model and our expectation of the model to perform well on all classes. We…

The possibilities of the use of the coefficient of variation over a high threshold in tail modelling are discussed. The paper also considers multiple threshold tests for a generalized Pareto distribution, together with a threshold selection…

In this paper we consider the semi-parametric estimation of extreme quantiles of a right heavy-tail model. We propose a new Log Probability Weighted Moment estimator for extreme quantiles, which is obtained from the estimators of the shape…

Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an…