相关论文: The intensification of winter mid-latitude storms …
Left-moving (LM) supercells, characterized by anticyclonically rotating updrafts in the Northern Hemisphere, are significant due to their propensity to produce large hail. Although less common than right-moving supercells, they present…
Multiple studies have now demonstrated that machine learning (ML) can give improved skill for predicting or simulating fairly typical weather events, for tasks such as short-term and seasonal weather forecasting, downscaling simulations to…
The low frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
A possible deepening of the ocean mixed layer was investigated at a selected point of the Patagonian continental shelf where a significant positive wind speed trend was estimated. Using a 1-dimensional vertical numerical model (S2P3) forced…
Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to thermal extremes driven by rapid urbanization and climate change. Traditionally, thermal extremes have been monitored using Earth-observing satellites and numerical modeling frameworks. For…
Orbital forcing plays a key role in pacing the glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the mechanistic linkages between the orbital parameters - eccentricity, obliquity, and precession - and global ice volume remain unclear. Here, we…
An estimate of the net direction of climate interactions in different geographical regions is made by constructing a directed climate network from a regular latitude-longitude grid of nodes, using a directionality index (DI) based on…
Scientific and technological advances in numerical modelling have improved the quality of climate predictions over recent decades, but predictive skill remains limited in many aspects. Extreme events such as heat and cold waves, droughts,…
The oceans play a fundamental role in Earth's climate system, redistributing heat and influencing global and regional climate variability and predictability across weather and climate timescales. The benefits of ocean-atmosphere coupling…
One of the consequences of climate change is anobserved increase in the frequency of extreme cli-mate events. That poses a challenge for weatherforecast and generation algorithms, which learnfrom historical data but should embed an often…
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…
Climate impact assessments increasingly rely on high-resolution climate and forcing datasets, under the premise that finer detail enhances both the accuracy and policy relevance of projections. Yet systematic evaluations of when and where…
Turbulence, namely, irregular fluctuations in space and time characterize fluid flows in general and atmospheric flows in particular.The irregular,i.e., nonlinear space-time fluctuations on all scales contribute to the unpredictable nature…
Mesoscale convective systems MCSs play a central role in tropical rainfall and are closely linked to extreme precipitation and large scale variability. However, a quantitative understanding of their environmental controls remains…
Polar amplification describes the predicted reduction in the latitudinal surface temperature gradient, which will have physical implications for mid-latitude dynamics. The precise nature of these dynamical consequences remains unclear. Here…
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Attributing individual extreme events (EEs) to ACC is becoming crucial to assess the risks of climate change. Traditional attribution…
When the climate system is forced, e.g. by emission of greenhouse gases, it responds on multiple time scales. As temperatures rise, feedback processes might intensify or weaken. Current methods to analyze feedback strength, however, do not…
Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…
When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…