相关论文: The intensification of winter mid-latitude storms …
Near-surface extreme winds profoundly affect human society, yet process-based understanding of their changes under climate forcings remains limited. This study systematically investigates the responses of high (HWE) and low (LWE) wind…
Planetary and synoptic scale wave-packets represent one important component of the atmospheric large-scale circulation. These dissipative structures are able to rapidly transport eddy kinetic energy, generated locally (e.g. by baroclinic…
Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability…
We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…
We assess the dependence of Earth's disk-integrated mid-infrared thermal emission spectrum on observation geometries and investigate which and how spectral features are impacted by seasonality on Earth. We compiled an exclusive dataset…
Weather regimes describe the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes in terms of a few circulation states that modulate regional surface weather. Subseasonal forecasts of prevailing weather regimes have proven skillful and…
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…
There is argument as to the extent to which there has been an increase over the past few decades in the frequency of the extremes of climatic parameters, such as temperature, storminess, precipitation, etc, an obvious point being that…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…
This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using…
This work investigates climate--projections over a transitional region between dry and wet climates, the Iberian Peninsula (IP). With this purpose, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR GCMs…
The boreal summer tropical upper-tropospheric momentum budget involves a balance between eddy and mean meridional fluxes. In winter, however, the eddy flux itself acts to accelerate and decelerate the zonal flow in the Asian and East…
Previous research has demonstrated that specific states of the climate system can lead to enhanced subseasonal predictability (i.e., state-dependent predictability). However, biases in Earth system models can affect the representation of…
Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…
In the outer regions of the habitable zone, the risk of transitioning into a globally frozen "snowball" state poses a threat to the habitability of planets with the capacity to host water-based life. We use a one-dimensional energy balance…
To evaluate the role of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) on Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. 16 different TSI estimates were compiled from the literature. 1/2…