相关论文: Mathematical models of COVID-19 spread

Two stochastic models are proposed to describe the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first model the population is partitioned into four compartments: susceptible $S$, infected $I$, removed $R$ and dead people $D$. In order to have…

The paper presents the one of possible approach to model the epidemic propagation. The proposed model is based on the mean-field control inside separate groups of population, namely, suspectable (S), infected (I), removed (R) and…

In this review, we successively present the methods for phenomenological modeling of the evolution of reported and unreported cases of COVID-19, both in the exponential phase of growth and then in a complete epidemic wave. After the case of…

The paper formulates and solves the problem of identification of unknown parameters of mathematical models of the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus infection, based on SEIR type models, based on additional information about the number of…

Comparing how different populations have suffered under COVID-19 is a core part of ongoing investigations into how public policy and social inequalities influence the number of and severity of COVID-19 cases. But COVID-19 incidence can vary…

This article explores mathematical models for understanding the evolution of contagious diseases. The most widely known set of models are the compartmental ones, which are based on a set of differential equations. But these are not the only…

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in how people are currently living their lives. To determine how to best reduce the effects of the pandemic and start reopening societies, governments have drawn insights from…

The SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 disease have posed unprecedented and overwhelming demand, challenges and opportunities to domain, model and data driven modeling. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the challenges, tasks,…

We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability…

An epidemiological model for COVID-19 was developed and implemented in MATLAB/GNU Octave for use by public health practitioners, policy makers and the general public. The model distinguishes four stages in the disease: infected, sick,…

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce…

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…

Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…

Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…

Mathematical and simulation models are often used to predict the spread of a disease and estimate the impact of public health interventions, and many such models have been developed and used during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper…

In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…

A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…

In this paper we propose an epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of the spread is based on four fundamental categories of people in a population: Tested and infected, Non-Tested but infected, Tested but not…

Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…