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Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

We investigate the applicability of the well-known multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to the class of density-driven flow problems, in particular the problem of salinisation of coastal aquifers. As a test case, we solve the uncertain…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2024-03-27 Dmitry Logashenko , Alexander Litvinenko , Raul Tempone , Ekaterina Vasilyeva , Gabriel Wittum

Parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) algorithms generate clouds of proposals at each step to efficiently resolve a target probability distribution. We build a rigorous foundational framework for pMCMC algorithms that situates these…

In this paper we develop a very efficient approach to the Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) that measures the average benefit of knowing the value of a subset of uncertain parameters…

数值分析 · 数学 2019-12-09 Michael B. Giles , Takashi Goda

The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful computational technique for finding the maximum likelihood estimates for parametric models when the data are not fully observed. The EM is best suited for situations where the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-05-14 Chanseok Park

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

We present a highly scalable Monte Carlo (MC) three-dimensional photon transport simulation platform designed for heterogeneous computing systems. Through the development of a massively parallel MC algorithm using the Open Computing…

分布式、并行与集群计算 · 计算机科学 2018-02-06 Leiming Yu , Fanny Nina-Paravecino , David Kaeli , Qianqian Fang

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is an established approach for uncertainty quantification and propagation in scientific applications. A key challenge in applying MCMC to scientific domains is computation: the target density of interest is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-10-05 Diana Cai , Ryan P. Adams

In big data context, traditional MCMC methods, such as Metropolis-Hastings algorithms and hybrid Monte Carlo, scale poorly because of their need to evaluate the likelihood over the whole data set at each iteration. In order to resurrect…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-06-20 Changye Wu , Christian P. Robert

A novel algorithm for computing the action of a matrix exponential over a vector is proposed. The algorithm is based on a multilevel Monte Carlo method, and the vector solution is computed probabilistically generating suitable random paths…

数值分析 · 数学 2019-07-05 Juan A. Acebron , Jose R. Herrero , Jose Monteiro

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-14 Ajay Jasra , Seongil Jo , David Nott , Christine Shoemaker , Raul Tempone

Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

数值分析 · 数学 2017-05-24 Xinjuan Chen , Jinglai Li

We present a mathematical framework for constructing and analyzing parallel algorithms for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. The resulting algorithms have the capacity to simulate a wide range of spatio-temporal scales in…

This article is concerned with the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for approximating expectations of some functions of the solution to the Heston 3/2-model from mathematical finance, which takes values in $(0, \infty)$ and possesses…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-03-12 Xiaojuan Wu , Siqing Gan

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a popular method for estimating the statistics (e.g. expectation and variance) of a random variable. Its slow convergence has led to the emergence of advanced techniques to reduce the variance of the MC…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-06-21 Mohamed Reda El Amri , Paul Mycek , Sophie Ricci , Matthias De Lozzo

Microscopic processes on surfaces such as adsorption, desorption, diffusion and reaction of interacting particles can be simulated using kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) algorithms. Even though kMC methods are accurate, they are computationally…

数学物理 · 物理学 2013-12-24 Yannis Pantazis , Markos Katsoulakis

We propose and analyze a novel Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) method for weak approximation of stochastic models that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients. The MIMC…

数值分析 · 数学 2015-03-26 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Fabio Nobile , Raul Tempone

We propose a new framework for how to use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGM). Via a sequential decomposition of the PGM we find a sequence of auxiliary distributions defined on a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-10-07 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

We apply multilevel Monte Carlo for option pricing problems using exponential L\'{e}vy models with a uniform timestep discretisation to monitor the running maximum required for lookback and barrier options. The numerical results demonstrate…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2017-05-31 Mike Giles , Yuan Xia

We develop a convergence analysis of a multi-level algorithm combining higher order quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) quadratures with general Petrov-Galerkin discretizations of countably affine parametric operator equations of elliptic and parabolic…

数值分析 · 数学 2015-08-11 Josef Dick , Frances Kuo , Quoc Thong Le Gia , Christoph Schwab