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In randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that focus on time-to-event outcomes, intercurrent events can arise in two ways: as semi-competing events, which modify the hazard of the primary outcome events, or as competing events, which make the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-26 Yuhao Deng , Shasha Han , Xiao-Hua Zhou

Matching and weighting methods for observational studies involve the choice of an estimand, the causal effect with reference to a specific target population. Commonly used estimands include the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT),…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-12 Noah Greifer , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Estimands can help clarify the interpretation of treatment effects and ensure that estimators are aligned to the study's objectives. Cluster randomised trials require additional attributes to be defined within the estimand compared to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-23 Brennan C Kahan , Bryan Blette , Michael Harhay , Scott Halpern , Vipul Jairath , Andrew Copas , Fan Li

Inferring causal effects from an observational study is challenging because participants are not randomized to treatment. Observational studies in infectious disease research present the additional challenge that one participant's treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-25 Brian G. Barkley , Michael G. Hudgens , John D. Clemens , Mohammad Ali , Michael E. Emch

In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-30 David Choi

Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical settings and policy-making. Beyond the gold-standard…

Case-control designs are an important tool in contrasting the effects of well-defined treatments. In this paper, we reconsider classical concepts, assumptions and principles and explore when the results of case-control studies can be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-06 Bas B. L. Penning de Vries , Rolf H. H. Groenwold

While recurrent event analyses have been extensively studied, limited attention has been given to causal inference within the framework of recurrent event analysis. We develop a multiply robust estimation framework for causal inference in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-30 Benjamin R. Baer , Trang Bui , Daniel Mork , Robert L. Strawderman , Ashkan Ertefaie

In this paper we study approaches for dealing with treatment when developing a clinical prediction model. Analogous to the estimand framework recently proposed by the European Medicines Agency for clinical trials, we propose a…

Post-randomization events, also known as intercurrent events, such as treatment noncompliance and censoring due to a terminal event, are common in clinical trials. Principal stratification is a framework for causal inference in the presence…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-19 Bo Liu , Lisa Wruck , Fan Li

In causal inference, the correct formulation of the scientific question of interest is a crucial step. Here we apply the estimand framework to a comparison of the outcomes of patient-level clinical trials and observational data to help…

Many research questions involve time-to-event outcomes that can be prevented from occurring due to competing events. In these settings, we must be careful about the causal interpretation of classical statistical estimands. In particular,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-09-01 Torben Martinussen , Mats Julius Stensrud

Under a composite estimand strategy, the occurrence of the intercurrent event is incorporated into the endpoint definition, for instance by assigning a poor outcome value to patients who experience the event. Composite strategies are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-01 Brennan C Kahan , Tra My Pham , Conor Tweed , Tim P Morris

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

Causal inference is the goal of randomized trials and many observational studies. The first step in a formal causal inference framework is to define the causal estimand, and in both types of study this can be intuitively defined as the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-09 Margarita Moreno-Betancur , Rushani Wijesuriya , John B. Carlin

Since the release of the ICH E9(R1) addendum on estimands, its application in non-inferiority trials has received far less attention than in superiority settings. A key conclusion from Lynggaard et al. was that the "choice of…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-03-12 Tobias Mütze , Helle Lynggaard , Sunita Rehal , Oliver N. Keene , Marian Mitroiu , David Wright

Intercurrent events, such as treatment switching, rescue medication, dropout, or truncation by death, frequently complicate intention-to-treat analyses in randomized clinical trials. Existing causal inference frameworks typically target…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-12 Georgi Baklicharov , Kelly Van Lancker , Stijn Vansteelandt

The creation of the ICH E9 (R1) estimands framework has led to more precise specification of the treatment effects of interest in the design and statistical analysis of clinical trials. However, it is unclear how the new framework relates…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-20 Thomas Drury , Jonathan W. Bartlett , David Wright , Oliver N. Keene

For handling intercurrent events in clinical trials, one of the strategies outlined in the ICH E9(R1) addendum targets the hypothetical scenario of non-occurrence of the intercurrent event. While this strategy is often implemented by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-18 Florian Lasch , Lorenzo Guizzaro , Wen Wei Loh

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-13 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green