相关论文: Joint Models for Cause-of-Death Mortality in Multi…

We investigate joint modeling of longevity trends using the spatial statistical framework of Gaussian Process regression. Our analysis is motivated by the Human Mortality Database (HMD) that provides unified raw mortality tables for nearly…

We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…

We develop a Gaussian process ("GP") framework for modeling mortality rates and mortality improvement factors. GP regression is a nonparametric, data-driven approach for determining the spatial dependence in mortality rates and jointly…

A common goal in modeling demographic rates is to compare two or more groups. For ex- ample comparing mortality rates between men and women or between geographic regions may reveal health inequalities. A popular class of models for…

Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…

We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…

Various stochastic models have been proposed to estimate mortality rates. In this paper we illustrate how machine learning techniques allow us to analyze the quality of such mortality models. In addition, we present how these techniques can…

We develop a flexible Gaussian Process (GP) framework for learning the covariance structure of Age- and Year-specific mortality surfaces. Utilizing the additive and multiplicative structure of GP kernels, we design a genetic programming…

Multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGPs) have been introduced to deal with multiple tasks by exploiting the correlations between different outputs. Generally, MOGPs models assume a flat correlation structure between the outputs. However,…

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…

Multi-output Gaussian process (MOGP) regression allows modelling dependencies among multiple correlated response variables. Similarly to standard Gaussian processes, MOGPs are sensitive to model misspecification and outliers, which can…

Modelling and forecasting homogeneous age-specific mortality rates of multiple countries could lead to improvements in long-term forecasting. Data fed into joint models are often grouped according to nominal attributes, such as geographic…

Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…

Understanding the underlying causes of maternal death across all regions of the world is essential to inform policies and resource allocation to reduce the mortality burden. However, in many countries there exists very little data on the…

Worldwide, many millions of people die suddenly and unexpectedly each year, either with or without a prior history of cardiovascular disease. Such events are sparse (once in a lifetime), many victims will not have had prior investigations…

Separate modelling of cause specific mortality rates and their projections can yield inconsistent forecasts when the sum of deaths by cause does not match the total observed in a population. We develop a hierarchical probabilistic framework…

This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…

Disease mapping analyses the distribution of several disease outcomes within a territory. Primary goals include identifying areas with unexpected changes in mortality rates, studying the relation among multiple diseases, and dividing the…

This paper extends Bayesian mortality projection models for multiple populations considering the stochastic structure and the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations. We explain high levels of overdispersion according to…

A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…