相关论文: A unified theory for ARMA models with varying coef…

This paper proposes a simple yet effective convolutional module for long-term time series forecasting. The proposed block, inspired by the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, consists of two convolutional components:…

We express the classic ARMA time-series model as a directed graphical model. In doing so, we find that the deterministic relationships in the model make it effectively impossible to use the EM algorithm for learning model parameters. To…

The paper examines the problem of representing the dynamics of low order autoregressive (AR) models with time varying (TV) coefficients. The existing literature computes the forecasts of the series from a recursion relation. Instead, we…

Temperature uncertainty models for land and sea surfaces can be developed based on statistical methods. In this paper, we developed a novel time series temperature uncertainty model which is the Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARMA)(1, 1)…

The object of this paper is to study the asymptotic dependence structure of the linear time series models with infinitely divisible innovations by the use of their characteristic functions. Autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models and…

We derive a closed-form expression for the finite predictor coefficients of multivariate ARMA (autoregressive moving-average) processes. The expression is given in terms of several explicit matrices that are of fixed sizes independent of…

The paper considers the problem to estimate a graphical model corresponding to an autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) Gaussian stochastic process. We propose a new maximum entropy covariance and cepstral extension problem and we show that…

This is a survey of some recent results on the rational circulant covariance extension problem: Given a partial sequence $(c_0,c_1,\dots,c_n)$ of covariance lags $c_k=\mathbb{E}\{y(t+k)\overline{y(t)}\}$ emanating from a stationary periodic…

The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is one of the most important models in time series analysis.We consider the Bayesian estimation of an unknown spectral density in the ARMA model.In the i.i.d. cases, Komaki showed that Bayesian…

This paper challenges the dominance of stochastic trend models by introducing the Seasonal-Trend-Stationary ARMA (STSA) framework, which represents univariate nonstationary time series as stationary fluctuations around deterministic trend…

The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model takes the significant position in time series analysis for a wide-sense stationary time series. The difference operator and seasonal difference operator, which are bases of ARIMA and SARIMA…

Leibniz' combinatorial formula for determinants is modified to establish a condensed and easily handled compact representation for Hessenbergians, referred to here as Leibnizian representation. Alongside, the elements of a fundamental…

We present a general formula for the particular solution of an inhomogeneous linear difference equation with variable coefficients. The answer is expressed as a weighted sum of fundamental solutions of the associated linear difference…

In this paper we show that stationary and non-stationary multivariate continuous-time ARMA (MCARMA) processes have the representation as a sum of multivariate complex-valued Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes under some mild assumptions. The…

The standard approach for studying the periodic ARMA model with coefficients that vary over the seasons is to express it in a vector form. In this paper we introduce an alternative method which views the periodic formulation as a time…

This paper is about vector autoregressive-moving average (VARMA) models with time-dependent coefficients to represent non-stationary time series. Contrarily to other papers in the univariate case, the coefficients depend on time but not on…

Linear time series modelling is dominated by the use of purely autoregressive models even though incorporating moving average components can greatly improve parsimony. We present a convex formulation for vector-ARMA system identification…

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE)…

In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…

We formulate the so called "VARMA covariance matching problem" and demonstrate the existence of a solution using the degree theory from differential topology.