相关论文: Comparing Sequential Forecasters

We address the problem of incremental sequence classification, where predictions are updated as new elements in the sequence are revealed. Drawing on temporal-difference learning from reinforcement learning, we identify a…

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Assessing forecasting performance is a time intensive activity, often requiring months or years before we know whether or not the reported forecasts were accurate. Cognitive tests can be quickly administered and are predictive of…

Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some…

In scientific inference problems, the underlying statistical modeling assumptions have a crucial impact on the end results. There exist, however, only a few automatic means for validating these fundamental modelling assumptions. The…

Consider a decision maker who is responsible to collect observations so as to enhance his information in a speedy manner about an underlying phenomena of interest. The policies under which the decision maker selects sensing actions can be…

Safety-critical prediction systems, such as autonomous vehicles, weather forecasters, and medical monitors, commonly rely on probabilistic forecasters. These forecasters make predictions about possible future outcomes, and their quality and…

Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by…

Motivated by the goal of evaluating real-time forecasts of home team win probabilities in the National Basketball Association, we develop new tools for measuring the quality of continuously updated probabilistic forecasts. This includes…

Bayesian computational algorithms tend to scale poorly as data size increases. This has motivated divide-and-conquer-based approaches for scalable inference. These divide the data into subsets, perform inference for each subset in parallel,…

In situations where forecasters are scored on the quality of their probabilistic predictions, it is standard to use `proper' scoring rules to perform such scoring. These rules are desirable because they give forecasters no incentive to lie…

While data science is battling to extract information from the enormous explosion of data, many estimators and algorithms are being developed for better prediction. Researchers and data scientists often introduce new methods and evaluate…

What, if anything, should a frequentist say about a single realized confidence interval (CI) and its chance of having covered the parameter? Jerzy Neyman's original answer was to refuse any nondegenerate probability for coverage ex post…

We initiate the study of the truthfulness of calibration measures in sequential prediction. A calibration measure is said to be truthful if the forecaster (approximately) minimizes the expected penalty by predicting the conditional…

Wind power forecasting is essential for managing daily operations at wind farms and enabling market operators to manage power uncertainty effectively in demand planning. This paper explores advanced cross-temporal forecasting models and…

The sequential analysis of series often requires nonparametric procedures, where the most powerful ones frequently use rank transformations. Re-ranking the data sequence after each new observation can become too intensive computationally.…

Uncertainty quantification in time series prediction is challenging due to the temporal dependence and distribution shift on sequential data. Conformal inference provides a pivotal and flexible instrument for assessing the uncertainty of…

Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical…

A common approach in forecasting problems is to estimate a least-squares regression (or other statistical learning models) from past data, which is then applied to predict future outcomes. An underlying assumption is that the same…

We consider inference on a scalar regression coefficient under a constraint on the magnitude of the control coefficients. A class of estimators based on a regularized propensity score regression is shown to exactly solve a tradeoff between…