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Monitoring the evolution of the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical step in sanitary policy design. Yet, the assessment of the pandemic intensity within the pandemic period remains a challenging task because of the limited quality of…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2022-02-14 Patrice Abry , Gersende Fort , Barbara Pascal , Nelly Pustelnik

Monitoring the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical societal stake that received considerable research efforts. The intensity of the pandemic on a given territory is efficiently measured by the reproduction number, quantifying the rate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-19 Gersende Fort , Barbara Pascal , Patrice Abry , Nelly Pustelnik

This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-08-20 Mauricio C. de Oliveira

During an epidemic outbreak, decision makers crucially need accurate and robust tools to monitor the pathogen propagation. The effective reproduction number, defined as the expected number of secondary infections stemming from one…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-01-14 Etienne Lasalle , Barbara Pascal

The time varying effective reproduction number is an important parameter for communication and policy decisions during an epidemic. In this paper, we present new statistical methods for estimating the reproduction number based on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-02 Hans R. Künsch , Fabio Sigrist

Near-real time estimations of the effective reproduction number are among the most important tools to track the progression of a pandemic and to inform policy makers and the general public. However, these estimations rely on reported case…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2022-07-25 Eszter Bokányi , Zsolt Vizi , Júlia Koltai , Gergely Röst , Márton Karsai

In the last year many public health decisions were based on real-time monitoring the spread of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For this one often considers the reproduction number which measures the amount of secondary cases produced by a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-09-01 Jan Pablo Burgard , Stefan Heyder , Thomas Hotz , Tyll Krueger

Addressed in this work is the performance of five popular algorithms, which aim at assessing the dissemination dynamics of the COVID-19 disease on the basis of the time series of new confirmed cases. The tests are based on simulated data,…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2021-05-10 Evangelos Matsinos

This paper presents a data-based simple model for fitting the available data of the Covid-19 pandemic evolution in France. The time series concerning the 13 regions of mainland France have been considered for fitting and validating the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-07-23 Mirko Fiacchini , Mazen Alamir

We propose a new method to estimate the time-varying effective (or instantaneous) reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The method is based on a discrete-time stochastic augmented compartmental model that…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2022-04-27 A. Hasan , H. Susanto , V. R. Tjahjono , R. Kusdiantara , E. R. M. Putri , P. Hadisoemarto , N. Nuraini

We present a simple technique to compare the development of the Covid-19 epidemic in different regions, based only on the time series of confirmed cases. Weekly new infections, taken for every day, are interpreted as infection potential of…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2020-06-04 Christoph Bandt

During the first months, the Covid-19 pandemic has required most countries to implement complex sequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions, with the aim of controlling the transmission of the virus in the population. To be able to take…

To control the current outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019, constant monitoring of the epidemic is required since, as of today, no vaccines or antiviral drugs against it are known. We provide daily updated estimates of the reproduction…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2020-04-21 Thomas Hotz , Matthias Glock , Stefan Heyder , Sebastian Semper , Anne Böhle , Alexander Krämer

In this paper, we use a Bayesian method to estimate the effective reproduction number (R(t)), in the context of monitoring the time evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil at different geographic levels. The focus of this study is to…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-06-05 Edson Porto da Silva , Antônio Marcus Nogueira Lima

The investment of time and resources for better strategies and methodologies to tackle a potential pandemic is key to deal with potential outbreaks of new variants or other viruses in the future. In this work, we recreated the scene of a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-04-22 Andrés L. Suárez-Cetrulo , Ankit Kumar , Luis Miralles-Pechuán

This work proposes an implementable proximal-type method for a broad class of optimization problems involving nonsmooth and nonconvex objective and constraint functions. In contrast to existing methods that rely on an ad hoc model…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-09-26 Gregorio M. Sempere , Welington de Oliveira , Johannes O. Royset

COVID-19 continues to cause a significant impact on public health. To minimize this impact, policy makers undertake containment measures that however, when carried out disproportionately to the actual threat, as a result if errorneous…

Machine learning algorithms in high-dimensional settings are highly susceptible to the influence of even a small fraction of structured outliers, making robust optimization techniques essential. In particular, within the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-25 Changyu Gao , Andrew Lowy , Xingyu Zhou , Stephen J. Wright

This paper focuses on convex constrained optimization problems, where the solution is subject to a convex inequality constraint. In particular, we aim at challenging problems for which both projection into the constrained domain and a…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2017-06-13 Tianbao Yang , Qihang Lin , Lijun Zhang

Composite convex optimization problems which include both a nonsmooth term and a low-rank promoting term have important applications in machine learning and signal processing, such as when one wishes to recover an unknown matrix that is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-09-28 Dan Garber , Atara Kaplan
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