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We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) when both randomized control trial (RCT) data and external real-world data (RWD) are available. We decompose the ATE estimand as the difference between a pooled-ATE…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-22 Mark van der Laan , Sky Qiu , Jens Magelund Tarp , Lars van der Laan

We identify the average dose-response function (ADRF) for a continuously valued error-contaminated treatment by a weighted conditional expectation. We then estimate the weights nonparametrically by maximising a local generalised empirical…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-11-30 Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang

An important aspect of the performance of algorithms that predict individualized treatment effects (ITE) is moderate calibration, i.e., the average treatment effect among individuals with predicted treatment effect of z being equal to z.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-10 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Jeroen Hoogland , Thomas P. A. Debray , John Petkau

Estimating individual and average treatment effects from observational data is an important problem in many domains such as healthcare and e-commerce. In this paper, we advocate balance regularization of multi-head neural network…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-24 Mehrdad Farajtabar , Andrew Lee , Yuanjian Feng , Vishal Gupta , Peter Dolan , Harish Chandran , Martin Szummer

Causal inference typically assumes centralized access to individual-level data. Yet, in practice, data are often decentralized across multiple sites, making centralization infeasible due to privacy, logistical, or legal constraints. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-04 Rémi Khellaf , Aurélien Bellet , Julie Josse

Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) provide a systematic framework for optimizing sequential decision-making in chronic disease management, where therapies must adapt to patients' evolving clinical profiles. Inverse probability weighting (IPW)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-26 Chloe Si , David A. Stephens , Erica E. M. Moodie

In causal inference, the Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) estimator is commonly used to estimate causal effects for estimands within the class of Weighted Average Treatment Effect (WATE). When constructing confidence intervals (CIs),…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-14 Shunichiro Orihara

Optimizing deep neural networks (DNNs) often suffers from the ill-conditioned problem. We observe that the scaling-based weight space symmetry property in rectified nonlinear network will cause this negative effect. Therefore, we propose to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-10-09 Lei Huang , Xianglong Liu , Bo Lang , Bo Li

Additive noise models (ANMs) are an important setting studied in causal inference. Most of the existing works on ANMs assume causal sufficiency, i.e., there are no unobserved confounders. This paper focuses on confounded ANMs, where a set…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-16 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Mahsa Ghasemi , Murat Kocaoglu

We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

With continuous outcomes, the average causal effect is typically defined using a contrast of expected potential outcomes. However, in the presence of skewed outcome data, the expectation may no longer be meaningful. In practice the typical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-06 Daisy A. Shepherd , Benjamin R. Baer , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), which has been used to estimate sample average treatment effects (SATE) using observational data, tenuously relies on the positivity assumption and the correct specification of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-23 Nathan Kallus , Brenton Pennicooke , Michele Santacatterina

In observational research treatment effects, the average treatment effect (ATE) estimator may be biased if a confounding variable is misclassified. We discuss the impact of classification error in a dichotomous confounding variable in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-12-13 Linda Nab , Rolf H. H. Groenwold , Maarten van Smeden , Ruth H. Keogh

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

Inverse probability weighting (IPW) methods are commonly used to analyze non-ignorable missing data under the assumption of a logistic model for the missingness probability. However, solving IPW equations numerically may involve…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-24 Pengfei Li , Jing Qin , Yukun Liu

Kernel matching is a widely used technique for estimating treatment effects, particularly valuable in observational studies where randomized controlled trials are not feasible. While kernel-matching approaches have demonstrated practical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-11 Chong Ding , Zheng Li , Hon Keung Tony Ng , Wei Gao

This paper addresses the use of neural networks for the estimation of treatment effects from observational data. Generally, estimation proceeds in two stages. First, we fit models for the expected outcome and the probability of treatment…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-10-21 Claudia Shi , David M. Blei , Victor Veitch

When the distribution of treatment effect modifiers differs between the trial sample and target population, inverse probability weighting (IPSW) can be applied to achieve an unbiased estimate of the population average treatment effect in…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-03-04 Albee Y. Ling , Maria E. Montez-Rath , Kris Kapphahn , Manisha Desai

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a core problem in causal inference with strong connections to Off-Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learning. This paper considers the problem of adaptively selecting the treatment…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-22 Ojash Neopane , Aaditya Ramdas , Aarti Singh

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-06 Rui Wang , Ying-Qi Zhao , Oliver Dukes , Bo Zhang