相关论文: Dynamic modeling of the Italians' attitude towards…
The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…
While COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in global mortality rates, the impact of the pandemic on mortality from other causes remains uncertain. To gain insight into the broader effects of COVID-19 on various causes of death,…
In this work, using a detailed dataset furnished by National Health Authorities concerning the Province of Pavia (Lombardy, Italy), we propose to determine the essential features of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in term of contact dynamics.…
COVID-19 has led to excess deaths around the world, however it remains unclear how the mortality of other causes of death has changed during the pandemic. Aiming at understanding the wider impact of COVID-19 on other death causes, we study…
This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the subjective well-being as measured through Twitter data indicators for Japan and Italy. It turns out that, overall, the subjective well-being dropped by 11.7% for Italy and 8.3%…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
Socioeconomic inequalities significantly influence infectious disease outcomes, as seen with COVID-19, but the pathways through which socioeconomic conditions affect transmission dynamics remain unclear. To address this, we conducted a…
A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first…
We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…
Detecting changes in COVID-19 disease transmission over time is a key indicator of epidemic growth.Near real-time monitoring of the pandemic growth is crucial for policy makers and public health officials who need to make informed decisions…
The COVID-19 pandemic considerably affects public health systems around the world. The lack of knowledge about the virus, the extension of this phenomenon, and the speed of the evolution of the infection are all factors that highlight the…
During the current Covid-19 pandemic in Italy, official data are collected with medical swabs following a pure convenience criterion which, at least in an early phase, has privileged the exam of patients showing evident symptoms. However,…
The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), starting in late 2019, has determined in Italy several interventions aimed to prevent saturation of the health system. We have examined the effects of such measures by proposing a mean-field model…
We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…
The availability of intensive care beds during the Covid-19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short-term prediction of Covid-19 ICU beds,…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the behavioral response to reported case numbers changed drastically over time. While a few dozen cases were enough to trigger government-induced and voluntary contact reduction in early 2020, less than a year…
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world in a short period of time and with a heterogeneous pattern. Understanding the underlying temporal and spatial dynamics in the spread of COVID-19 can result in…
Background. The paper concerns the SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) pandemic that, starting from the end of February 2020, began spreading along the Italian peninsula, by first attacking small communities in north regions, and then extending to the…
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a long-term impact on industries worldwide, with the hospitality and food industry facing significant challenges, leading to the permanent closure of many restaurants and the loss of jobs. In this study, we…
In this work, the SIR epidemiological model is reformulated so to highlight the important {\em effective reproduction number}, as well as to account for the {\em generation time}, inverse of the {\em incidence rate}, and the {\em infectious…