相关论文: Forecasting and its Beneficiaries

Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an…

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

Forecasting plays a critical role in the development of organisational business strategies. Despite a considerable body of research in the area of forecasting, the focus has largely been on the financial and economic outcomes of the…

Without the ability to estimate and benchmark AI capability advancements, organizations are left to respond to each change reactively, impeding their ability to build viable mid and long-term strategies. This paper explores the recent…

Social media comprises interactive applications and platforms for creating, sharing and exchange of user-generated contents. The past ten years have brought huge growth in social media, especially online social networking services, and it…

People vary in their ability to make accurate predictions about the future. Prior studies have shown that some individuals can predict the outcome of future events with consistently better accuracy. This leads to a natural question: what…

In environments with increasing uncertainty, such as smart grid applications based on renewable energy, planning can benefit from incorporating forecasts about the uncertainty and from systematically evaluating the utility of the forecast…

Forecasting and optimisation are two major fields of operations research that are widely used in practice. These methods have contributed to each other growth in several ways. However, the nature of the relationship between these two fields…

The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g. regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim…

This popular article provides a short summary of the progress and prospects in Weather and Climate Modelling for the benefit of high school and undergraduate college students and early career researchers. Although this is not a…

Prediction is a complex notion, and different predictors (such as people, computer programs, and probabilistic theories) can pursue very different goals. In this paper I will review some popular kinds of prediction and argue that the theory…

Forecasts inform decision-making in nearly every domain. Forecasts are often produced by experts with rare or hard to acquire skills. In practice, forecasts are often used by domain experts and managers with little forecasting expertise.…

Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of the mainstream of forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced from single (target) series…

Automated negotiation can be an efficient method for resolving conflict and redistributing resources in a coalition setting. Automated negotiation has already seen increased usage in fields such as e-commerce and power distribution in smart…

How should forecasters be incentivized to acquire the most information when learning takes place over time? We address this question in the context of a novel dynamic mechanism design problem in which a designer incentivizes an expert to…

We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Systematically biased forecasts are typically interpreted as evidence of forecasters' irrationality and/or asymmetric loss. In this paper we propose an alternative explanation: when forecasts inform policy decisions, and the resulting…

The current framework for climate change negotiation models presents several limitations that warrant further research and development. In this track, we discuss mainly two key areas for improvement, focusing on the geographical impacts and…

This chapter examines the motivations and imperatives for modernizing how statistical agencies approach statistical disclosure limitation for official data product releases. It discusses the implications for agencies' broader data…

Algorithmic predictions are increasingly informing societal resource allocations by identifying individuals for targeting. Policymakers often build these systems with the assumption that by gathering more observations on individuals, they…