相关论文: Detecting and diagnosing prior and likelihood sens…

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

Bayesian models based on the Dirichlet process and other stick-breaking priors have been proposed as core ingredients for clustering, topic modeling, and other unsupervised learning tasks. However, due to the flexibility of these models,…

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

This paper introduces the R package BayesVarSel which implements objective Bayesian methodology for hypothesis testing and variable selection in linear models. The package computes posterior probabilities of the competing hypotheses/models…

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

Bayesian posterior distributions arising in modern applications, including inverse problems in partial differential equation models in tomography and subsurface flow, are often computationally intractable due to the large computational cost…

Prior sensitivity analysis is a fundamental method to check the effects of prior distributions on the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Exploring the posteriors under several alternative priors can be computationally intensive,…

The power prior is a popular tool for constructing informative prior distributions based on historical data. The method consists of raising the likelihood to a discounting factor in order to control the amount of information borrowed from…

While the choice of prior is one of the most critical parts of the Bayesian inference workflow, recent Bayesian deep learning models have often fallen back on vague priors, such as standard Gaussians. In this review, we highlight the…

Sensitivity analyses reveal the influence of various modeling choices on the outcomes of statistical analyses. While theoretically appealing, they are overwhelmingly inefficient for complex Bayesian models. In this work, we propose…

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

In this paper, we are concerned with attributing meaning to the results of a Bayesian analysis for a problem which is sufficiently complex that we are unable to assert a precise correspondence between the expert probabilistic judgements of…

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

The power prior is a class of informative priors designed to incorporate historical data alongside current data in a Bayesian framework. It includes a power parameter that controls the influence of historical data, providing flexibility and…

Hierarchical models are versatile tools for joint modeling of data sets arising from different, but related, sources. Fully Bayesian inference may, however, become computationally prohibitive if the source-specific data models are complex,…

Classification approaches based on the direct estimation and analysis of posterior probabilities will degrade if the original class priors begin to change. We prove that a unique (up to scale) solution is possible to recover the data…

Bayes factor, defined as the ratio of the marginal likelihood functions of two competing models, is the natural Bayesian procedure for model selection. Marginal likelihoods are usually computationally demanding and complex. This scenario is…

In Bayesian analysis, the posterior follows from the data and a choice of a prior and a likelihood. One hopes that the posterior is robust to reasonable variation in the choice of prior, since this choice is made by the modeler and is often…

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

Sensitivity Analysis is a framework to assess how conclusions drawn from missing outcome data may be vulnerable to departures from untestable underlying assumptions. We extend the E-value, a popular metric for quantifying robustness of…