相关论文: Detecting and diagnosing prior and likelihood sens…

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

To answer the call of introducing more Bayesian techniques to organizational research (e.g., Kruschke, Aguinis, & Joo, 2012; Zyphur & Oswald, 2013), we propose a Bayesian approach for meta-analysis with power prior in this article. The…

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

In this paper, we introduce the notion of Gaussian processes indexed by probability density functions for extending the Mat\'ern family of covariance functions. We use some tools from information geometry to improve the efficiency and the…

Local sensitivity diagnostics for Bayesian models are described that are analogues of frequentist measures of leverage and influence. The diagnostics are simple to calculate using MCMC. A comparison between leverage and influence allows a…

In this paper we show that there is a link between approximate Bayesian methods and prior robustness. We show that what is typically recognized as an approximation to the likelihood, either due to the simulated data as in the Approximate…

Bayesian analysis plays a crucial role in estimating distribution of unknown parameters for given data and model. Due to the curse of dimensionality, it becomes difficult for high-dimensional problems, especially when multiple modes exist.…

Power and sample size analysis comprises a critical component of clinical trial study design. There is an extensive collection of methods addressing this problem from diverse perspectives. The Bayesian paradigm, in particular, has attracted…

Gaussian processes retain the linear model either as a special case, or in the limit. We show how this relationship can be exploited when the data are at least partially linear. However from the perspective of the Bayesian posterior, the…

Posterior sampling allows exploitation of prior knowledge on the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, the…

Hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy was recently developed to enable uncertainty quantification for optimization problems. The approach consists of two primary steps: (i) Bayesian calibration of the…

Uncertainty quantification in reinforcement learning can greatly improve exploration and robustness. Approximate Bayesian approaches have recently been popularized to quantify uncertainty in model-free algorithms. However, so far the focus…

Bayesian models based on the Dirichlet process and other stick-breaking priors have been proposed as core ingredients for clustering, topic modeling, and other unsupervised learning tasks. Prior specification is, however, relatively…

Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However,…

Bayesian likelihood-free inference, which is used to perform Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, enjoys an increasing number of important scientific applications. However, many aspects of a Bayesian analysis become more…

Bayesian hypothesis tests leverage posterior probabilities, Bayes factors, or credible intervals to inform data-driven decision making. We propose a framework for power curve approximation with such hypothesis tests. We present a fast…

The formulation of Bayesian inverse problems involves choosing prior distributions; choices that seem equally reasonable may lead to significantly different conclusions. We develop a computational approach to better understand the impact of…

A common problem in disciplines of applied Statistics research such as Astrostatistics is of estimating the posterior distribution of relevant parameters. Typically, the likelihoods for such models are computed via expensive experiments…

When using Bayesian inference to support conservative software reliability assessments, it is useful to consider a collection of Bayesian inference problems, with the aim of determining the worst-case value (from this collection) for a…