相关论文: Detecting and diagnosing prior and likelihood sens…

Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability…

Bayesian predictive probabilities are commonly used for interim monitoring of clinical trials through efficacy and futility stopping rules. Despite their usefulness, calculation of predictive probabilities, particularly in pre-experiment…

Driven by the critical needs of biomanufacturing 4.0, we introduce a probabilistic knowledge graph hybrid model characterizing the risk- and science-based understanding of bioprocess mechanisms. It can faithfully capture the important…

Likelihood-free methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation, are powerful tools for practical inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo variants of approximate…

An important feature of Bayesian statistics is the opportunity to do sequential inference: the posterior distribution obtained after seeing a dataset can be used as prior for a second inference. However, when Monte Carlo sampling methods…

We harness the power of Bayesian emulation techniques, designed to aid the analysis of complex computer models, to examine the structure of complex Bayesian analyses themselves. These techniques facilitate robust Bayesian analyses and/or…

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

Bayesian priors offer a compact yet general means of incorporating domain knowledge into many learning tasks. The correctness of the Bayesian analysis and inference, however, largely depends on accuracy and correctness of these priors.…

We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the…

Aims: Caustic-crossing binary-lens microlensing events are important anomalous events because they are capable of detecting an extrasolar planet companion orbiting the lens star. Fast and robust modelling methods are thus of prime interest…

Bayesian model selection provides a natural alternative to classical hypothesis testing based on p-values. While many papers mention that Bayesian model selection is frequently sensitive to prior specification on the parameters, there are…

Variational Inference is a powerful tool in the Bayesian modeling toolkit, however, its effectiveness is determined by the expressivity of the utilized variational distributions in terms of their ability to match the true posterior…

The R package BayesPPD (Bayesian Power Prior Design) supports Bayesian power and type I error calculation and model fitting after incorporating historical data with the power prior and the normalized power prior for generalized linear…

We present a continuation method that entails generating a sequence of transition probability density functions from the prior to the posterior in the context of Bayesian inference for parameter estimation problems. The characterization of…

The usual procedure for estimating the significance of a peak in a power spectrum is to calculate the probability of obtaining that value or a larger value by chance (known as the "p-value"), on the assumption that the time series contains…

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

This paper proposes a new methodology for performing Bayesian inference in imaging inverse problems where the prior knowledge is available in the form of training data. Following the manifold hypothesis and adopting a generative modelling…

The power-expected-posterior (PEP) prior is an objective prior for Gaussian linear models, which leads to consistent model selection inference, under the M-closed scenario, and tends to favor parsimonious models. Recently, two new forms of…

Gathering labeled data to train well-performing machine learning models is one of the critical challenges in many applications. Active learning aims at reducing the labeling costs by an efficient and effective allocation of costly labeling…

Causal fairness in databases is crucial to preventing biased and inaccurate outcomes in downstream tasks. While most prior work assumes a known causal model, recent efforts relax this assumption by enforcing additional constraints. However,…