相关论文: Smoothed Bernstein Online Aggregation for Day-Ahea…

Modeling price risks is crucial for economic decision making in energy markets. Besides the risk of a single price, the dependence structure of multiple prices is often relevant. We therefore propose a generic and easy-to-implement method…

Although numerical weather forecasting methods have dominated the field, recent advances in deep learning methods, such as diffusion models, have shown promise in ensemble weather forecasting. However, such models are typically…

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting is essential for residential welfare, yet current methods often fall short in forecast accuracy. We observe that commonly used time series models struggle to utilize the prior correlation…

The electrification and automation of mobility are reshaping how cities operate on-demand transport systems. Managing Electric Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (EAMoD) fleets effectively requires coordinating dispatch, rebalancing, and…

We introduce a methodology for online estimation of smoothing expectations for a class of additive functionals, in the context of a rich family of diffusion processes (that may include jumps) -- observed at discrete-time instances. We…

Accurate forecasting of the electrical load, such as the magnitude and the timing of peak power, is crucial to successful power system management and implementation of smart grid strategies like demand response and peak shaving. In…

This paper addresses the critical challenge of improving predictions of climate extreme events, specifically heat waves, using machine learning methods. Our work is framed as a classification problem in which we try to predict whether…

The increasing interest in demand-side management (DSM) as part of the energy cost optimization calls for effective methods to determine representative electricity prices for energy optimization and scheduling investigations. We propose a…

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting (DAEPF) is critical for the efficient operation of power systems, but extreme condition and market anomalies pose significant challenges to existing forecasting methods. To overcome these…

We propose a simple empirical scaling law that describes load forecasting accuracy at different levels of aggregation. The model is justified based on a simple decomposition of individual consumption patterns. We show that for different…

Data assimilation (DA) combines model forecasts and observations to estimate the optimal state of the atmosphere with its uncertainty, providing initial conditions for weather prediction and reanalyses for climate research. Yet, existing…

We introduce the Smoothed Online Optimization for Target Tracking (SOOTT) problem, a new framework that integrates three key objectives in online decision-making under uncertainty: (1) tracking cost for following a dynamically moving…

Platform businesses operate on a digital core and their decision making requires high-dimensional accurate forecast streams at different levels of cross-sectional (e.g., geographical regions) and temporal aggregation (e.g., minutes to…

While non-parametric models, such as neural networks, are sufficient in the load forecasting, separate estimates of fixed and shiftable loads are beneficial to a wide range of applications such as distribution system operational planning,…

Weather forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, necessitating probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainty. While traditional ensemble prediction (EPS) addresses this through computationally…

This paper proposes online algorithms for dynamic matching markets in power distribution systems, which at any real-time operation instance decides about matching -- or delaying the supply of -- flexible loads with available renewable…

In applications of climate information, coarse-resolution climate projections commonly need to be downscaled to a finer grid. One challenge of this requirement is the modeling of sub-grid variability and the spatial and temporal dependence…

For the prediction with experts' advice setting, we construct forecasting algorithms that suffer loss not much more than any expert in the pool. In contrast to the standard approach, we investigate the case of long-term forecasting of time…

Adaptive time series forecasting is essential for prediction under regime changes. Several classical methods assume linear Gaussian state space model (LGSSM) with variances constant in time. However, there are many real-world processes that…

Modeling real-world multidimensional time series can be particularly challenging when these are sporadically observed (i.e., sampling is irregular both in time and across dimensions)-such as in the case of clinical patient data. To address…