相关论文: Explaining Recruitment to Extremism: A Bayesian Ca…

In cancer epidemiology, the \emph{relative survival framework} is used to quantify the hazard associated with cancer by comparing the all-cause mortality hazard in cancer patients to that of the general population. This framework assumes…

Bayesian inference is attractive for its coherence and good frequentist properties. However, it is a common experience that eliciting a honest prior may be difficult and, in practice, people often take an {\em empirical Bayes} approach,…

We investigate the strategic behavior of a large population of agents who decide whether to adopt a costly partially effective protection or remain unprotected against the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic. In contrast with most…

Effective collective decision-making in swarm robotics often requires balancing exploration, communication and individual uncertainty estimation, especially in hazardous environments where direct measurements are limited or costly. We…

Policy inference plays an essential role in the contextual bandit problem. In this paper, we use empirical likelihood to develop a Bayesian inference method for the joint analysis of multiple contextual bandit policies in finite sample…

Black box attacks, where adversaries have limited knowledge of the target model, pose a significant threat to machine learning systems. Adversarial examples generated with a substitute model often suffer from limited transferability to the…

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects -- such as job applicants,…

This paper studies a preference evolution model in which a population of agents are matched to play a sequential prisoner's dilemma in an incomplete information environment. An institution can design an incentive-compatible screening…

Extremist ideologies are finding new homes in online forums. These serve as both places for true believers, and recruiting-grounds for curious newcomers. To understand how newcomers learn ideology online, we study the Reddit archives of a…

We consider an operational model of suicide bombing attacks -- an increasingly prevalent form of terrorism -- against specific targets, and the use of protective countermeasures based on the deployment of detectors over the area under…

We introduce a gradient-based approach for the problem of Bayesian optimal experimental design to learn causal models in a batch setting -- a critical component for causal discovery from finite data where interventions can be costly or…

The aim of this paper is to model the length of registration at university and its associated academic outcome for undergraduate students at the Pontificia Universidad Cat\'olica de Chile. Survival time is defined as the time until the end…

The assessment of diversity and similarity is relevant in monitoring the status of ecosystems. The respective indicators are based on the taxonomic composition of biological communities of interest, currently estimated through the…

Probabilistic modeling is fundamental to the statistical analysis of complex data. In addition to forming a coherent description of the data-generating process, probabilistic models enable parameter inference about given data sets. This…

In this work, we summarize the state-of-the-art methods in causal inference for extremes. In a non-exhaustive way, we start by describing an extremal approach to quantile treatment effect where the treatment has an impact on the tail of the…

Complex adaptive systems have been the subject of much recent attention. It is by now well-established that members (`agents') tend to self-segregate into opposing groups characterized by extreme behavior. However, while different social…

Religions are among the most consequential social institutions, shaping collective identities, moral norms, and political organization across societies and historical periods. Nevertheless, despite extensive scholarship describing…

The chronological hierarchy and classification of psychological types of individuals are examined. The anomalous nature of psychological activity in individuals involved in scientific work is highlighted. Certain aspects of the introverted…

Activity profiles of terrorist groups show frequent spurts and downfalls corresponding to changes in the underlying organizational dynamics. In particular, it is of interest in understanding changes in attributes such as…

We model the behavioral biases of human decision-making in securing interdependent systems and show that such behavioral decision-making leads to a suboptimal pattern of resource allocation compared to non-behavioral (rational)…