相关论文: Explaining Recruitment to Extremism: A Bayesian Ca…

Psychiatric and social epidemiology often involves assessing the effects of environmental exposure on outcomes that are difficult to measure directly. To address this problem, it is common to measure outcomes using a comprehensive battery…

Raking is widely used in categorical data modeling and survey practice but faced with methodological and computational challenges. We develop a Bayesian paradigm for raking by incorporating the marginal constraints as a prior distribution…

Predictability of undesired events is a question of great interest in many scientific disciplines including seismology, economy, and epidemiology. Here, we focus on the predictability of invasion of a broad class of epidemics caused by…

I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based…

We propose a statistical model to estimate population proportions under the survey variable cause model (Groves 2006), the setting in which the characteristic measured by the survey has a direct causal effect on survey participation. For…

Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate…

Sequence analysis is an increasingly popular approach for analysing life courses represented by ordered collections of activities experienced by subjects over time. Here, we analyse a survey data set containing information on the career…

Robots can be used to collect environmental data in regions that are difficult for humans to traverse. However, limitations remain in the size of region that a robot can directly observe per unit time. We introduce a method for selecting a…

Motivated by loss of control risks from misaligned AI systems, we develop and apply methods for measuring language models' propensity for unsanctioned behaviour. We contribute three methodological improvements: analysing effects of changes…

Safe exploration aims at addressing the limitations of Reinforcement Learning (RL) in safety-critical scenarios, where failures during trial-and-error learning may incur high costs. Several methods exist to incorporate external knowledge or…

Bayesian inference has theoretical attractions as a principled framework for reasoning about beliefs. However, the motivations of Bayesian inference which claim it to be the only 'rational' kind of reasoning do not apply in practice. They…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated high vulnerability to adversarial examples, raising broad security concerns about their applications. Besides the attacks in the digital world, the practical implications of adversarial examples…

This paper presents a sandbox example of how the integration of models borrowed from Behavioral Economic (specifically Protection-Motivation Theory) into ML algorithms (specifically Bayesian Networks) can improve the performance and…

Through multi-agent competition, the simple objective of hide-and-seek, and standard reinforcement learning algorithms at scale, we find that agents create a self-supervised autocurriculum inducing multiple distinct rounds of emergent…

Respondent-driven sampling is a widely-used network sampling technique, designed to sample from hard-to-reach populations. Estimation from the resulting samples is an area of active research, with software available to compute at least four…

Analyzing interaction data provides an opportunity to learn about users, uncover their underlying goals, and create intelligent visualization systems. The first step for intelligent response in visualizations is to enable computers to infer…

The structure and the properties of complex networks essentially depend on the way how nodes get connected to each other. We assume here that each node has a feature which attracts the others. We model the situation by assigning two numbers…

Cluster sampling is common in survey practice, and the corresponding inference has been predominantly design-based. We develop a Bayesian framework for cluster sampling and account for the design effect in the outcome modeling. We consider…

The analysis of case-control point pattern data is an important problem in spatial epidemiology. The spatial variation of cases if often compared to that of a set of controls to assess spatial risk variation as well as the detection of risk…

Language Models (LMs) have been shown to exhibit a strong preference towards entities associated with Western culture when operating in non-Western languages. In this paper, we aim to uncover the origins of entity-related cultural biases in…