相关论文: The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a s…

Sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) may play a significant role in the HIV epidemic, but the precise effect is unclear. We derive edge-based compartmental models of disease spread in idealized dynamic…

We propose a model of multispecies populations surviving on distributed resources. System dynamics are investigated under changes in abiotic factors such as the climate, as parameterized through environmental temperature. In particular, we…

In many data analyses, each measurement may come with a simple yes/no correction; for example, belonging to one of two populations or being contaminated or not. Ignoring such binary effects may bias the results, while accounting for them…

This paper presents correct algorithms for answering the following two questions; (i) Does there exist a causal explanation consistent with a set of background knowledge which explains all of the observed independence facts in a sample?…

Individuals within any species exhibit differences in size, developmental state, or spatial location. These differences coupled with environmental fluctuations in demographic rates can have subtle effects on population persistence and…

Processes of mass communications in complicated social or sociobiological systems such as marketing, economics, politics, animal populations, etc. as a subject for the special scientific discipline - "mediaphysics" - are considered in its…

The constantly growing body of scholarly knowledge of science, technology, and humanities is an asset of the mankind. While new discoveries expand the existing knowledge, they may simultaneously render some of it obsolete. It is crucial for…

Many empirical studies estimate causal effects in environments where economic units interact through spatial or network connections. In such settings, outcomes are jointly determined, and treatment induced shocks propagate across…

The conditions of multi-phase equilibrium are solved for generic polydisperse systems. The case of multiple polydispersity is treated, where several properties (e.g. size, charge, shape) simultaneously vary from one particle to another. By…

A fundamental problem in network science is to predict how certain individuals are able to initiate new networks to spring up "new ideas". Frequently, these changes in trends are triggered by a few innovators who rapidly impose their ideas…

This article deals with plausible reasoning from incomplete knowledge about large-scale spatial properties. The availableinformation, consisting of a set of pointwise observations,is extrapolated to neighbour points. We make use of belief…

Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…

Mathematical models of complex social systems can enrich social scientific theory, inform interventions, and shape policy. From voting behavior to economic inequality and urban development, such models influence decisions that affect…

Replication studies estimate the replicability rate of scientific results by aggregating binary verdicts of experiments. Exact replications are rarely attainable, so most replication sequences are non-exact. Experiments differ in ways that…

In the rapidly growing literature on explanation algorithms, it often remains unclear what precisely these algorithms are for and how they should be used. In this position paper, we argue for a novel and pragmatic perspective: Explainable…

In several large-scale replication projects, statistically non-significant results in both the original and the replication study have been interpreted as a "replication success". Here we discuss the logical problems with this approach:…

Large language models (LLMs) can produce erroneous responses that sound fluent and convincing, raising the risk that users will rely on these responses as if they were correct. Mitigating such overreliance is a key challenge. Through a…

Meta-analyses are commonly performed based on random-effects models, while in certain cases one might also argue in favour of a common-effect model. One such case may be given by the example of two "study twins" that are performed according…

How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…

The abundance of a species' population in an ecosystem is rarely stationary, often exhibiting large fluctuations over time. Using historical data on marine species, we show that the year-to-year fluctuations of population growth rate obey a…