相关论文: The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a s…

This paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of the effects of actions in the presence of unmeasured variables. We show that the identification of causal effect between a singleton variable X and a set of variables Y can be accomplished…

Mediation analyses are a statistical tool for testing the hypothesis about how the relationship between two variables may be direct or indirect via a third variable. Assessing statistical significance has been an area of active research;…

In a world in which many pressing global issues require large scale cooperation, understanding the group size effect on cooperative behavior is a topic of central importance. Yet, the nature of this effect remains largely unknown, with lab…

Classical economics has developed an arsenal of methods, based on the idea of representative agents, to come up with precise numbers for next year's GDP, inflation and exchange rates, among (many) other things. Few, however, will disagree…

With the pandemic, many experimental psychologists and linguists have started to collect data over the internet (hereafter on-line data). The feasibility of such experiments and the sample sizes required to achieve sufficient statistical…

The concept of power can be explored at several scales: from physical action and process effectuation, all the way to complex social dynamics. A spectrum-wide analysis of power requires attention to the fundamental principles that constrain…

The earliest stage of the evolution of a fully assembled planet is profoundly affected by a number of basin-forming impacts large enough to change the dynamics of its deeper interior. These impacts are in some cases quite closely spaced and…

Galactic outflows have a multiphase nature making them challenging to model analytically. Many previous studies have tried to produce models that come closer to reality. In this work, we continue these efforts and describe the interaction…

We consider a class of models of opinion formation where the dissemination of individual opinions occurs through the spreading of local consensus and disagreement. We study the emergence of full collective consensus or maximal disagreement…

Social scientists have long appreciated that relationships between individuals cannot be described from observing a single domain, and that the structure across domains of interaction can have important effects on outcomes of interest…

The principle of the common cause claims that if an improbable coincidence has occurred, there must exist a common cause. This is generally taken to mean that positive correlations between non-causally related events should disappear when…

The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…

We consider the problem of assessing whether, in an individual case, there is a causal relationship between an observed exposure and a response variable. When data are available on similar individuals we may be able to estimate prospective…

In this paper we propose a dynamical interpretation of the sociological distinction between large and small groups of interacting individuals. In the former case individual behaviors are largely dominated by the group effect, while in the…

Recently, it has been emphasized that the possibility theory framework allows us to distinguish between i) what is possible because it is not ruled out by the available knowledge, and ii) what is possible for sure. This distinction may be…

A number of authors have in recent years proposed that the processes of macroevolution may give rise to self-organized critical phenomena which could have a significant effect on the dynamics of ecosystems. In particular it has been…

Dynamics of species' abundances in ecological communities are often described using models that only account for a few species. It is not clear when and why this would be possible, as most species form part of diverse ecological…

Providing plausible responses to why questions is a challenging but critical goal for language based human-machine interaction. Explanations are challenging in that they require many different forms of abstract knowledge and reasoning.…

The management of common-pool resources is a complex challenge due to the risk of overexploitation and the tragedy of the commons. A novel framework has been introduced to address this issue, focusing on the coevolutionary relationship…

Hidden stochastic effects acting uniformly on a many-particle system can generate strong correlations and macroscopic relative fluctuations that persist at large system sizes, even when the particles themselves remain causally independent.…