相关论文: Risk Quantization by Magnitude and Propensity

M-quantile random-effects regression represents an interesting approach for modelling multilevel data when the interest of researchers is focused on the conditional quantiles. When data are based on complex survey designs, sampling weights…

The problem of characterizing a multivariate distribution of a random vector using examination of univariate combinations of vector components is an essential issue of multivariate analysis. The likelihood principle plays a prominent role…

A common goal in observational research is to estimate marginal causal effects in the presence of confounding variables. One solution to this problem is to use the covariate distribution to weight the outcomes such that the data appear…

Ramsey (1926) sketches a proposal for measuring the subjective probabilities of an agent by their observable preferences, assuming that the agent is an expected utility maximizer. I show how to extend the spirit of Ramsey's method to a…

This paper generalizes results concerning strong convexity of two-stage mean-risk models with linear recourse to distortion risk measures. Introducing the concept of (restricted) partial strong convexity, we conduct an in-depth analysis of…

In many settings, robust data analysis involves computational methods for uncertainty quantification and statistical inference. To design frequentist studies that leverage robust analysis methods, suitable sample sizes to achieve desired…

In meta analysis, multiple hypothesis testing and many other methods, p-values are utilized as inputs and assumed to be uniformly distributed over the unit interval under the null hypotheses. If data used to generate p-values have discrete…

Let $\{{\bf \mathcal{Z}}_n:n\geq 1\}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random probability measures. Independently, for each $n\geq 1$, let $(X_{n1},\ldots, X_{nn})$ be a random vector of positive random variables that add up to one. This paper…

Managing a portfolio to a risk model can tilt the portfolio toward weaknesses of the model. As a result, the optimized portfolio acquires downside exposure to uncertainty in the model itself, what we call "second order risk." We propose a…

For Huber contamination on a known finite sample space, the unrestricted contaminating law is a probability vector on the support atoms, and domination over all measurable subsets reduces to atomwise inequalities. Placing a Dirichlet prior…

The risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for both the authorities and the insurance industry. This paper concerns risk measures in a spatial setting, in order to introduce the spatial features of damages stemming from…

The project managers who deal with risk management are often faced with the difficult task of determining the relative importance of the various sources of risk that affect the project. This prioritisation is crucial to direct management…

Classically, risk is characterized by a point value probability indicating the likelihood of occurrence of an adverse effect. However, there are domains where the attainability of objective numerical risk characterizations is increasingly…

Unlike classification, whose goal is to estimate the class of each data point in a dataset, prevalence estimation or quantification is a task that aims to estimate the distribution of classes in a dataset. The two main tasks in prevalence…

Optimal transport provides a powerful mathematical framework with applications spanning numerous fields. A cornerstone within this domain is the $p$-Wasserstein distance, which serves to quantify the cost of transporting one probability…

This paper proposes a new approach to estimating the distribution of a response variable conditioned on observing some factors. The proposed approach possesses desirable properties of flexibility, interpretability, tractability and…

Gaussian random vectors exhibit the loss of dimension phenomena, which relate to their joint survival tail behaviour. Besides, the fact that the components of such vectors are light-tailed complicates the approximations of various…

The ongoing concern about systemic risk since the outburst of the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for risk measures at the level of sets of interconnected financial components, such as portfolios, institutions or members of…

Non-uniform estimates are obtained for Poisson, compound Poisson, translated Poisson, negative binomial and binomial approximations to sums of of m-dependent integer-valued random variables. Estimates for Wasserstein metric also follow…

This paper proposes two mixed models to study a consumer's optimal saving in the presence of two types of risk.