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Most Bayesian response-adaptive designs unbalance randomization rates towards the most promising arms with the goal of increasing the number of positive treatment outcomes during the study, even though the primary aim of the trial is…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-07-02 Steffen Ventz , Matteo Cellamare , Sergio Bacallado , Lorenzo Trippa

Bayesian adaptive designs have gained popularity in all phases of clinical trials with numerous new developments in the past few decades. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the need to establish evidence for the effectiveness of vaccines,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-08 Shirin Golchi

Aims: Combinations of treatments can offer additional benefit over the treatments individually. However, trials of these combinations are lower priority than the development of novel therapies, which can restrict funding, timelines and…

Adaptive approaches, allowing for more flexible trial design, have been proposed for individually randomized trials to save time or reduce sample size. However, adaptive designs for cluster-randomized trials in which groups of participants…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-10 Junwei Shen , Shirin Golchi , Erica E. M. Moodie , David Benrimoh

Clinical trials are an instrument for making informed decisions based on evidence from well-designed experiments. Here we consider adaptive designs mainly from the perspective of multi-arm Phase II clinical trials, in which one or more…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-31 Elja Arjas , Dario Gasbarra

Bayesian adaptive designs enable flexible clinical trials by adapting features based on accumulating data. Among these, Bayesian Response-Adaptive Randomization (BRAR) skews patient allocation towards more promising treatments based on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-05 Daniel Kaddaj , Stef Baas , Edwin Y. N. Tang , David S. Robertson , Lukas Pin , Sofía S. Villar

Targeted therapies on the basis of genomic aberrations analysis of the tumor have shown promising results in cancer prognosis and treatment. Regardless of tumor type, trials that match patients to targeted therapies for their particular…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-04-18 Yanxun Xu , Peter Mueller , Apostolia M Tsimberidou , Donald Berry

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) is a methodology to identify experiments that are expected to yield informative data. Recent work in cognitive science considered BOED for computational models of human behavior with tractable and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-01 Simon Valentin , Steven Kleinegesse , Neil R. Bramley , Michael U. Gutmann , Christopher G. Lucas

Randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. Nevertheless, in studies that are aimed at examining adverse effects of interventions, such trials are often impractical because of ethical and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-01-20 Anthony D. Scotina , Andrew R. Zullo , Robert J. Smith , Roee Gutman

Practical employment of Bayesian trial designs is still rare. Even if accepted in principle, the regulators have commonly required that such designs be calibrated according to an upper bound for the frequentist type I error rate. This…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-25 Elja Arjas , Dario Gasbarra

Clinical trials are an integral component of medical research. Trials require careful design to, for example, maintain the safety of participants, use resources efficiently and allow clinically meaningful conclusions to be drawn. Adaptive…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-17 James M. McGree , Antony M. Overstall , Mark Jones , Robert K. Mahar

Basket trials in oncology enroll multiple patients with cancer harboring identical gene alterations and evaluate their response to targeted therapies across cancer types. Several existing methods have extended a Bayesian hierarchical model…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Ryo Kitabayashi , Hiroyuki Sato , Akihiro Hirakawa

In developing products for rare diseases, statistical challenges arise due to the limited number of patients available for participation in drug trials and other clinical research. Bayesian adaptive clinical trial designs offer the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-09-19 Xiao Wu , Yi Xu , Bradley P. Carlin

Background: Advanced adaptive randomised clinical trials are increasingly used. Compared to their conventional counterparts, their flexibility may make them more efficient, increase the probability of obtaining conclusive results without…

In the design of clinical trials, it is essential to assess the design operating characteristics (e.g., power and the type I error rate). Common practice for the evaluation of operating characteristics in Bayesian clinical trials relies on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-17 Luke Hagar , Shirin Golchi

Background. Designing trials to reduce treatment duration is important in several therapeutic areas, including TB and antibiotics. We recently proposed a new randomised trial design to overcome some of the limitations of standard two-arm…

We consider optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) under model uncertainty. Specifically, we consider inverse problems in which, in addition to the…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-07-03 Alen Alexanderian , Ruanui Nicholson , Noemi Petra

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient optimization algorithm widely employed across various applications. In some challenging BO tasks, input uncertainty arises due to the inevitable randomness in the optimization process, such…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-07 Lin Yang , Junlong Lyu , Wenlong Lyu , Zhitang Chen

Uncertainty in state or model parameters is common in robotics and typically handled by acquiring system measurements that yield information about the uncertain quantities of interest. Inputs to a nonlinear dynamical system yield outcomes…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2023-08-04 Parker Ewen , Gitesh Gunjal , Joey Wilson , Jinsun Liu , Challen Enninful Adu , Ram Vasudevan

Background: We aimed to design a Bayesian adaption trial through extensive simulations to determine values for key design parameters, demonstrate error rates, and establish the expected sample size. The complexity of the proposed outcome…

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