相关论文: Modelling sub-daily precipitation extremes with th…
In modeling spatial extremes, the dependence structure is classically inferred by assuming that block maxima derive from max-stable processes. Weather stations provide daily records rather than just block maxima. The point process approach…
Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is crucial for hydrometeorological risk management and disaster mitigation, yet remains challenging for current numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Traditional ensemble systems such as…
The hazard of pluvial flooding is largely influenced by the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of precipitation. When extreme precipitation possesses strong spatial dependence, the risk of flooding is amplified due to catchment…
Generalized extreme value (GEV) regression is often more adapted when we investigate a relationship between a binary response variable $Y$ which represents a rare event and potentiel predictors $\mathbf{X}$. In particular, we use the…
Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…
We carry out a study of the statistical distribution of rainfall precipitation data for 20 cites in India. We have determined the best-fit probability distribution for these cities from the monthly precipitation data spanning 100 years of…
Accurate estimation of the T-year return levels of climate extremes using statistical distribution is a critical step in the projection of future climate and in engineering design for disaster response. We show how the estimation of such…
Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…
Understanding the spatial extent of extreme precipitation is necessary for determining flood risk and adequately designing infrastructure (e.g., stormwater pipes) to withstand such hazards. While environmental phenomena typically exhibit…
We introduce an approach to quickly and accurately approximate the cumulative distribution function of multivariate Gaussian distributions arising from spatial Gaussian processes. This approximation is trivially parallelizable and simple to…
Reanalysis products such as the ERA5 reanalysis are commonly used as proxies for observed atmospheric conditions. These products are convenient to use due to their global coverage, the large number of available atmospheric variables and the…
We propose a method for post-processing an ensemble of multivariate forecasts in order to obtain a joint predictive distribution of weather. Our method utilizes existing univariate post-processing techniques, in this case ensemble Bayesian…
Statistical post-processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post-processing method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation…
Machine learning (ML) offers a computationally efficient approach for generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate projections, but deterministic ML methods often smooth fine-scale structures and underestimate extremes. While…
Distributed inference/estimation in Bayesian framework in the context of sensor networks has recently received much attention due to its broad applicability. The variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm is a technique for approximating…
We develop new flexible univariate models for light-tailed and heavy-tailed data, which extend a hierarchical representation of the generalized Pareto (GP) limit for threshold exceedances. These models can accommodate departure from…
The distribution of block maxima of sequences of independent and identically-distributed random variables is used to model extreme values in many disciplines. The traditional extreme value (EV) theory derives a closed-form expression for…
Spatio-temporal hidden Markov models are extremely difficult to estimate because their latent joint distributions are available only in trivial cases. In the estimation phase, these latent distributions are usually substituted with…
A discrete version of the Gumbel (Type I) extreme value distribution has been derived by using the general approach of discretization of a continuous distribution. Important distributional and reliability properties have been explored. It…
Aiming to generate realistic synthetic times series of the bivariate process of daily mean temperature and precipitations, we introduce a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model. The non-homogeneity lies in periodic transition probabilities…