相关论文: Risk Model of German Corona Warning App - Reloaded

In this study, the German "Corona-Warn-App" of the German Federal Government and the Robert-Koch-Institute is examined by means of a non-representative online survey with 1482 participants for reasons of use and non-use. The study provides…

Contact Tracing Apps (CTAs) have been developed to contain the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) spread. By design, such apps invade their users' privacy by recording data about their health, contacts, and partially location. Many CTAs…

This paper introduces a new basic risk model that could also be utilized by Covid-19 warning apps a priori, before an action is performed. Today the common warning apps estimate risk a posteriori and give no advice on particular scenarios.…

Several governments introduced or promoted the use of contact-tracing apps during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In Germany, the related app is called Corona-Warn-App, and by end of 2020, it had 22.8 million downloads. Contact tracing is a…

On June 16, 2020, Germany launched an open-source smartphone contact tracing app ("Corona-Warn-App") to help tracing SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) infection chains. It uses a decentralized, privacy-preserving design based on the Exposure…

Digital contact tracing apps for COVID, such as the one developed by Google and Apple, need to estimate the risk that a user was infected during a particular exposure, in order to decide whether to notify the user to take precautions, such…

The robust Wald confidence interval (CI) for the Cox model is commonly used when the model may be misspecified or when weights are applied. However it can perform poorly when there are few events in one or both treatment groups, as may…

The two main issues for managing wrong way risk (WWR) for the credit valuation adjustment (CVA, i.e. WW-CVA) are calibration and hedging. Hence we start from a novel model-free worst-case approach based on static hedging of counterparty…

A key driver of Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) is the possible dependency between exposure and counterparty credit risk, known as Wrong-Way Risk (WWR). At this time, addressing WWR in a both sound and tractable way remains challenging:…

In this work, we study the causal relations among German regions in terms of the spread of Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic, taking into account the restriction policies that were applied by the different federal states. We…

This paper presents a unified approach based on Wasserstein distance to derive concentration bounds for empirical estimates for two broad classes of risk measures defined in the paper. The classes of risk measures introduced include as…

Web Applications (WA's) failures may lead to collapse of the institutions, therefore the importance of good quality WA's is increasing over the time. Testing is one of the best quality metrics that decide whether WA's are reliable or not.…

Caseworkers in the child welfare (CW) sector use predictive decision-making algorithms built on risk assessment (RA) data to guide and support CW decisions. Researchers have highlighted that RAs can contain biased signals which flatten CW…

Cure models have been widely developed to estimate the cure fraction when some subjects never experience the event of interest. However these models were rarely focused on the estimation of the time-to-cure i.e. the delay elapsed between…

Predictive models are often required to produce reliable predictions under statistical conditions that are not matched to the training data. A common type of training-testing mismatch is covariate shift, where the conditional distribution…

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, it is of critical significance to provide a timely risk prediction of the COVID-19 in multi-level. To implement it and evaluate the public health policies, we develop a framework with…

Currently, due to the COVID-19 pandemic the public life in most European countries stopped almost completely due to measures against the spread of the virus. Efforts to limit the number of new infections are threatened by the advent of new…

Learning models whose predictions are invariant under multiple environments is a promising approach for out-of-distribution generalization. Such models are trained to extract features $X_{\text{inv}}$ where the conditional distribution $Y…

General wrong way risk (WWR) estimation is necessary for regulatory CVA capital and useful for pricing CVA and FVA. We introduce a model independent method for calculating WWR and update the definition of WWR to deal with the lack of…

We consider a patient risk models which has access to patient features such as vital signs, lab values, and prior history but does not have access to a patient's diagnosis. For example, this occurs in a model deployed at intake time for…