相关论文: Bayesian model averaging for mortality forecasting…

We overview Bayesian estimation, hypothesis testing, and model-averaging and illustrate how they benefit parametric survival analysis. We contrast the Bayesian framework to the currently dominant frequentist approach and highlight…

Understanding cause-specific mortality rates is crucial for monitoring population health and designing public health interventions. Worldwide, two-thirds of deaths do not have a cause assigned. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a well-established tool…

A novel data-driven methodology is presented for the joint selection of prior parameters for both fixed and random effects in Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). This approach facilitates the estimation of complex random-effects structures, as well…

This paper extends the Lee-Carter model for single- and multi-populations to account for pandemic jump effects of vanishing kind, allowing for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of mortality rates during a pandemic,…

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is the state of the art approach for overcoming model uncertainty. Yet, especially on small data sets, the results yielded by BMA might be sensitive to the prior over the models. Credal Model Averaging (CMA)…

This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…

Mathematical models support inference and forecasting in ecology and epidemiology, but results depend on the estimation framework. We compare Bayesian and Frequentist approaches across three biological models using four datasets:…

Studying unified model averaging estimation for situations with complicated data structures, we propose a novel model averaging method based on cross-validation (MACV). MACV unifies a large class of new and existing model averaging…

Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…

The EU Solvency II directive recommends insurance companies to pay more attention to the risk management methods. The sense of risk management is the ability to quantify risk and apply methods that reduce uncertainty. In life insurance, the…

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Verbal autopsies (VAs) are extensively used to investigate the population-level distributions of deaths by cause in low-resource settings without well-organized vital statistics systems. Computer-based methods are often adopted to assign…

In many countries life expectancy gains have been substantially higher than predicted by even recent forecasts. This is primarily due to increasing rates of improvement in old-age mortality not captured by existing models. In this paper we…

A general challenge in statistics is prediction in the presence of multiple candidate models or learning algorithms. Model aggregation tries to combine all predictive distributions from individual models, which is more stable and flexible…

This paper discusses regularized estimators in the multivariate statistical model as tools naturally arising within a Bayesian framework. First, a link is established between Bayesian estimation and inference under parameter rounding…

Machine learning models that aim to predict dementia onset usually follow the classification methodology ignoring the time until an event happens. This study presents an alternative, using survival analysis within the context of machine…

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for…

We investigate joint modeling of longevity trends using the spatial statistical framework of Gaussian Process regression. Our analysis is motivated by the Human Mortality Database (HMD) that provides unified raw mortality tables for nearly…