相关论文: Bayesian model averaging for mortality forecasting…

This paper develops new insights into quantitative methods for the validation of computational model prediction. Four types of methods are investigated, namely classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing, a reliability-based method, and an…

This paper extends Bayesian mortality projection models for multiple populations considering the stochastic structure and the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations. We explain high levels of overdispersion according to…

There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…

We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…

In the field of modeling, the word validation refers to simple comparisons between model outputs and experimental data. Usually, this comparison constitutes plotting the model results against data on the same axes to provide a visual…

The mean survival is the key ingredient of the decision process in several applications, notably in health economic evaluations. It is defined as the area under the complete survival curve, thus necessitating extrapolation of the observed…

In this paper authors present a general methodology for age dependent reliability analysis of degrading or ageing systems, structures and components.The methodology is based on Bayesian methods and inference, its ability to incorporate…

Monitoring cause-of-death data is an important part of understanding disease burdens and effects of public health interventions. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a well-established method for gathering information about deaths outside of hospitals by…

The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…

Indirect standardization is widely used in disease mapping to control for confounding, but relies on restrictive assumptions that may bias estimates if violated. Using data on suicide-related emergency calls, this study highlights such…

Instrumental variables are a popular tool to infer causal effects under unobserved confounding, but choosing suitable instruments is challenging in practice. We propose gIVBMA, a Bayesian model averaging procedure that addresses this…

Various stochastic models have been proposed to estimate mortality rates. In this paper we illustrate how machine learning techniques allow us to analyze the quality of such mortality models. In addition, we present how these techniques can…

In modern computer experiment applications, one often encounters the situation where various models of a physical system are considered, each implemented as a simulator on a computer. An important question in such a setting is determining…

The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…

We consider a binary unsupervised classification problem where each observation is associated with an unobserved label that we want to retrieve. More precisely, we assume that there are two groups of observation: normal and abnormal. The…

A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…

In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…

We establish concentration rates for estimation of treatment effects in experiments that incorporate prior sources of information -- such as past pilots, related studies, or expert assessments -- whose external validity is uncertain. Each…

In model development, model calibration and validation play complementary roles toward learning reliable models. In this article, we expand the Bayesian Validation Metric framework to a general calibration and validation framework by…

We propose a novel Bayesian model selection technique on linear mixed-effects models to compare multiple treatments with a control. A fully Bayesian approach is implemented to estimate the marginal inclusion probabilities that provide a…