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This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2014-06-17 Anna Zaremba , Tomaso Aste

We generalize a previously proposed approach for nonlinear Granger causality of time series, based on radial basis function. The proposed model is not constrained to be additive in variables from the two time series and can approximate any…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2009-11-11 Daniele Marinazzo , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

Physicists are starting to work in areas where noisy signal analysis is required. In these fields, such as Economics, Neuroscience, and Physics, the notion of causality should be interpreted as a statistical measure. We introduce to the lay…

Compressed sensing is a scheme that allows for sparse signals to be acquired, transmitted and stored using far fewer measurements than done by conventional means employing Nyquist sampling theorem. Since many naturally occurring signals are…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-03-29 Aditi Kathpalia , Nithin Nagaraj

We propose a new framework for assessing Granger causality in quantiles in unstable environments, for a fixed quantile or over a continuum of quantile levels. Our proposed test statistics are consistent against fixed alternatives, they have…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-09 Alexander Mayer , Dominik Wied , Victor Troster

Recent studies in the literature have paid much attention to the sparsity in linear classification tasks. One motivation of imposing sparsity assumption on the linear discriminant direction is to rule out the noninformative features, making…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-01-13 Dong Xia

Granger causality (GC) is undoubtedly the most widely used method to infer cause-effect relations from observational time series. Several nonlinear alternatives to GC have been proposed based on kernel methods. We generalize kernel Granger…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2020-12-10 Diego Bueso , Maria Piles , Gustau Camps-Valls

This paper proposes novel inferential procedures for discovering the network Granger causality in high-dimensional vector autoregressive models. In particular, we mainly offer two multiple testing procedures designed to control the false…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-14 Yoshimasa Uematsu , Takashi Yamagata

The lasso and related sparsity inducing algorithms have been the target of substantial theoretical and applied research. Correspondingly, many results are known about their behavior for a fixed or optimally chosen tuning parameter specified…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-06-23 Darren Homrighausen , Daniel J. McDonald

Multi-electrode neurophysiological recordings produce massive quantities of data. Multivariate time series analysis provides the basic framework for analyzing the patterns of neural interactions in these data. It has long been recognized…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2007-05-23 Mingzhou Ding , Yonghong Chen , Steven L. Bressler

This paper proposes a general framework for penalized convex empirical criteria and a new version of the Sparse-Group LASSO (SGL, Simon and al., 2013), called the adaptive SGL, where both penalties of the SGL are weighted by preliminary…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-12-01 Benjamin Poignard

Important information on the structure of complex systems, consisting of more than one component, can be obtained by measuring to which extent the individual components exchange information among each other. Such knowledge is needed to…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2009-11-13 Daniele Marinazzo , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

Time-series datasets are central in machine learning with applications in numerous fields of science and engineering, such as biomedicine, Earth observation, and network analysis. Extensive research exists on state-space models (SSMs),…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-17 Emilie Chouzenoux , Victor Elvira

While correlation measures are used to discern statistical relationships between observed variables in almost all branches of data-driven scientific inquiry, what we are really interested in is the existence of causal dependence. Designing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2014-06-26 Ishanu Chattopadhyay

Granger causality is a widely-used criterion for analyzing interactions in large-scale networks. As most physical interactions are inherently nonlinear, we consider the problem of inferring the existence of pairwise Granger causality…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-01-15 Saurabh Khanna , Vincent Y. F. Tan

We introduce a rigorous mathematical framework for Granger causality in extremes, designed to identify causal links from extreme events in time series. Granger causality plays a pivotal role in uncovering directional relationships among…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-21 Juraj Bodik , Olivier C. Pasche

Granger causality is a commonly used method for uncovering information flow and dependencies in a time series. Here we introduce JGC (Jacobian Granger Causality), a neural network-based approach to Granger causality using the Jacobian as a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-20 Suryadi , Yew-Soon Ong , Lock Yue Chew

This paper proposes a new approach for testing Granger non-causality on panel data. Instead of aggregating panel member statistics, we aggregate their corresponding p-values and show that the resulting p-value approximately bounds the type…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-24 Lenon Minorics , Caner Turkmen , David Kernert , Patrick Bloebaum , Laurent Callot , Dominik Janzing

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a linear univariate autoregressive model with sub-Gaussian innovations from a limited sequence of consecutive observations. Assuming that the parameters are compressible, we analyze…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2017-04-05 Abbas Kazemipour , Sina Miran , Piya Pal , Behtash Babadi , Min Wu

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes