相关论文: Transporting a prediction model for use in a new t…

Scientists frequently generalize population level causal quantities such as average treatment effect from a source population to a target population. When the causal effects are heterogeneous, differences in subject characteristics between…

We study transfer learning for a linear regression task using several least-squares pretrained models that can be overparameterized. We formulate the target learning task as optimization that minimizes squared errors on the target dataset…

A rich set of frequentist model averaging methods has been developed, but their applications have largely been limited to point prediction, as measuring prediction uncertainty in general settings remains an open problem. In this paper we…

In prediction problems, it is common to model the data-generating process and then use a model-based procedure, such as a Bayesian predictive distribution, to quantify uncertainty about the next observation. However, if the posited model is…

In many real applications of statistical learning, collecting sufficiently many training data is often expensive, time-consuming, or even unrealistic. In this case, a transfer learning approach, which aims to leverage knowledge from a…

Statistical machine translation models have made great progress in improving the translation quality. However, the existing models predict the target translation with only the source- and target-side local context information. In practice,…

Modern software systems provide many configuration options which significantly influence their non-functional properties. To understand and predict the effect of configuration options, several sampling and learning strategies have been…

Randomized trials are widely considered as the gold standard for evaluating the effects of decision policies. Trial data is, however, drawn from a population which may differ from the intended target population and this raises a problem of…

Objective: Randomized controlled trial (RCT) results often inform clinical decision-making, but the highly curated populations of trials and the care provided during the trial are often not reflective of real-world practice. The objective…

Statistical matching aims to integrate two statistical sources. These sources can be two samples or a sample and the entire population. If two samples have been selected from the same population and information has been collected on…

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…

A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature…

We present a method for image-based crowd counting, one that can predict a crowd density map together with the uncertainty values pertaining to the predicted density map. To obtain prediction uncertainty, we model the crowd density values…

Optimal transport is a powerful framework for the efficient allocation of resources between sources and targets. However, traditional models often struggle to scale effectively in the presence of large and heterogeneous populations. In this…

In many business settings, task-specific labeled data are scarce or costly to obtain, limiting supervised learning on a target task. A classical response is transfer learning (TL). Many TL works study how to transfer information from…

Statistical machine learning methods often face the challenge of limited data available from the population of interest. One remedy is to leverage data from auxiliary source populations, which share some conditional distributions or are…

Standard methods in preference learning involve estimating the parameters of discrete choice models from data of selections (choices) made by individuals from a discrete set of alternatives (the choice set). While there are many models for…

Evaluating predictive models is a crucial task in predictive analytics. This process is especially challenging with time series data where the observations show temporal dependencies. Several studies have analysed how different performance…

In model-based reinforcement learning, planning with an imperfect model of the environment has the potential to harm learning progress. But even when a model is imperfect, it may still contain information that is useful for planning. In…

Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…