相关论文: Uncertainty quantification for fault slip inversio…

We introduce in this study an algorithm for the imaging of faults and of slip fields on those faults. The physics of this problem are modeled using the equations of linear elasticity. We define a regularized functional to be minimized for…

In Geosciences a class of phenomena that is widely studied given its real impact on human life are the tectonic faults slip. These landslides have different ways to manifest, ranging from aseismic events of slow displacement (slow slips) to…

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

Long-term slow-slip events (LSSEs) usually occur on the deep, shallow parts of subducting plates and have substantial relation with adjacent megathrust fault motion. Conventional techniques of quantifying slow earthquake frictional features…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. Such a…

Earthquakes cause lasting changes in static equilibrium, resulting in global deformation fields that can be observed. Consequently, deformation measurements such as those provided by satellite based InSAR monitoring can be used to infer an…

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…

Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's…

Bayesian inference for high-dimensional inverse problems is computationally costly and requires selecting a suitable prior distribution. Amortized variational inference addresses these challenges via a neural network that approximates the…

Capable of reaching similar magnitudes to large megathrust earthquakes ($M_w>7$), slow slip events play a major role in accommodating tectonic motion on plate boundaries. These slip transients are the slow release of built-up tectonic…

We propose a Bayesian inference framework to estimate uncertainties in inverse scattering problems. Given the observed data, the forward model and their uncertainties, we find the posterior distribution over a finite parameter field…

In this work we investigate the ability of a kinetic approach for traffic dynamics to predict speed distributions obtained through rough data. The present approach adopts the formalism of uncertainty quantification, since reaction strengths…

The rigorous quantification of uncertainty in geophysical inversions is a challenging problem. Inversions are often ill-posed and the likelihood surface may be multi-modal; properties of any single mode become inadequate uncertainty…

An efficient method for inferring Manning's $n$ coefficients using water surface elevation data was presented in Sraj et al. (2014) focusing on a test case based on data collected during the $T\=ohoku$ earthquake and tsunami. Polynomial…

The critical slip distance in rate and state model for fault friction in the study of potential earthquakes can vary wildly from micrometers to few meters depending on the length scale of the critically stressed fault. This makes it…

Model misspecification constitutes a major obstacle to reliable inference in many inverse problems. Inverse problems in seismology, for example, are particularly affected by misspecification of wave propagation velocities. In this paper, we…

A general stochastic algorithm for solving mixed linear and nonlinear problems was introduced in [11]. We show in this paper how it can be used to solve the fault inverse problem, where a planar fault in elastic half-space and a slip on…

Solving ill-posed inverse problems by Bayesian inference has recently attracted considerable attention. Compared to deterministic approaches, the probabilistic representation of the solution by the posterior distribution can be exploited to…