相关论文: When optimal is not the best: cost effectiveness a…

We develop a Bayesian statistical model and estimation methodology based on Forward Projection Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo in order to perform the calibration of a high-dimensional non-linear system of Ordinary Differential Equations…

In this paper, an SIR epidemic model with variable size of population is considered. We study optimal control problem for an SIR model with "vaccination" and "treatment" as controls. It is shown that an optimal control exists. We have…

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are at the center of health economic decision making. While these analyses help policy analysts and economists determine coverage, inform policy, and guide resource allocation, they are statistically…

The aim of clinical effectiveness research using repositories of electronic health records is to identify what health interventions 'work best' in real-world settings. Since there are several reasons why the net benefit of intervention may…

Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing…

Health policy decisions regarding patient treatment strategies require consideration of both treatment effectiveness and cost. Optimizing treatment rules with respect to effectiveness may result in prohibitively expensive strategies; on the…

This paper is concerned with stochastic impulse control problems in which the running cost changes depending on the impulse control. Because of such a dependence, it brings several difficulties when the usual dynamic programming principle…

Modelling epidemics via classical population-based models suffers from shortcomings that so-called individual-based models are able to overcome, as they are able to take heterogeneity features into account, such as super-spreaders, and…

We evaluate the efficiency of various heuristic strategies for allocating vaccines against COVID-19 and compare them to strategies found using optimal control theory. Our approach is based on a mathematical model which tracks the spread of…

Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended…

We propose and study a new mathematical model of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The main novelty is to consider that the antibody growth depends not only on the virus and on the antibodies concentration but also on the uninfected…

Decision-makers frequently must choose a single action from a finite set of alternatives -- for example, physicians selecting a treatment, investors choosing a portfolio risk level, or judges determining sentences. To improve outcomes,…

In this paper, we address a social planner's optimal control problem for a partially observable stochastic epidemic model. The control measures include social distancing, testing, and vaccination. Using a diffusion approximation for the…

In vaccine studies for infectious diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the frequency and type of contacts between study participants and infectious sources are among the most informative risk factors, but are often not…

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) is typically defined as incidence rate ratio, cumulative-risk ratio, or odds ratio. The VE based on incidence rate ratio is known to be time-invariant over the study period for leaky action vaccines and, the VE…

In the quest for enhanced HIV prevention methods, the advent of antiretroviral drugs as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has marked a significant stride forward. However, the ethical challenges in conducting placebo-controlled trials for new…

During a pandemic, there are conflicting demands arising from public health and economic cost. Lockdowns are a common way of containing infections, but they adversely affect the economy. We study the question of how to minimise the economic…

We review the optimal control of systems modeling the dynamics of tuberculosis. Time dependent control functions are introduced in the mathematical models, representing strategies for the improvement of the treatment and cure of active…

Tuberculosis remains a significant global health challenge, with millions of new cases reported annually. Recent studies suggest that expanding the accessibility of TB intervention programs can lead to a substantial decrease in both TB…

We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…