相关论文: Novel Compositional Data's Grey Model for Structur…

Arctic coastal morphology is governed by multiple factors, many of which are affected by climatological changes. As the season length for shorefast ice decreases and temperatures warm permafrost soils, coastlines are more susceptible to…

This study presents a grey-box recursive identification technique to estimate key parameters in a mineral flotation process across two scenarios. The method is applied to a nonlinear physics-based dynamic model validated at a laboratory…

Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…

In part I of this analysis, the striking similarities of the declining oil production in the North Sea, Indonesia and Mexico were used to model the future maximum possible oil production per annum in all larger countries and regions of the…

We present a formulation for both implicit and explicit dual model predictive control for a steel recycling process. The process consists in the production of new steel by choosing a combination of several different steel scraps with…

Forecasting natural gas consumption, considering seasonality and trends, is crucial in planning its supply and consumption and optimizing the cost of obtaining it, mainly by industrial entities. However, in times of threats to its supply,…

This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure.…

Sea ice at the North Pole is vital to global climate dynamics. However, accurately forecasting sea ice poses a significant challenge due to the intricate interaction among multiple variables. Leveraging the capability to integrate multiple…

It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when a system destabilises towards a tipping…

We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of…

We propose a novel approach to improve prediction accuracy of grey power models including GM(1,1) and grey Verhulst model through optimization of the initial condition and model parameters in this paper. And we propose a modified grey…

In this paper, we develop a novel large volatility matrix estimation procedure for analyzing global financial markets. Practitioners often use lower-frequency data, such as weekly or monthly returns, to address the issue of different…

Data assimilation is often viewed as a framework for correcting short-term error growth in dynamical climate model forecasts. When viewed on the time scales of climate however, these short-term corrections, or analysis increments, can…

The precise tracking and prediction of polar ice layers can unveil historic trends in snow accumulation. In recent years, airborne radar sensors, such as the Snow Radar, have been shown to be able to measure these internal ice layers over…

Argo is an international program that collects temperature and salinity observations in the upper two kilometers of the global ocean. Most existing approaches for modeling Argo temperature rely on localized modeling within moving windows,…

Surface mass balance (SMB) is an important factor in the estimation of sea level change, and data are collected to estimate models for prediction of SMB over the Antarctic ice sheets. Using a quality-controlled aggregate dataset of SMB…

Traditional methods for the analysis of compositional data consider the log-ratios between all different pairs of variables with equal weight, typically in the form of aggregated contributions. This is not meaningful in contexts where it is…

The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we…

Snow density estimates below the surface, used with airplane-acquired ice-penetrating radar measurements, give a site-specific history of snow water accumulation. Because it is infeasible to drill snow cores across all of Antarctica to…

A mechanism connecting ice algal ecodynamics with the buildup of organic macromolecules in brine channels is tested offline in a reduced model of pack geochemistry. Driver physical quantities are extracted from the global sea ice dynamics…