相关论文: Insights from Optimal Pandemic Shielding in a Mult…

We make a retrospective review on various control measures taken by 127 countries/territories during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic until July 7, 2020, and evaluate their impacts on the epidemic dynamics quantitatively. The SEIR-QD…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

For the description of a pandemic mathematical models could be interesting. Both for physicians and politicians as a base for decisions to treat the disease. The responsible estimation of parameters is a main issue of mathematical pandemic…

By the end of 2021, COVID-19 had spread to over 230 countries, with over 5.4 million deaths. To contain its spread, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, notably contact tracing and self-quarantine policies. However,…

Most governments employ a set of quasi-standard measures to fight COVID-19 including wearing masks, social distancing, virus testing, contact tracing, and vaccination. However, combining these measures into an efficient holistic pandemic…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the first stages of a pandemic. Among these, lockdown policies proved unavoidable yet extremely costly from an economic perspective. To better…

As a common strategy of contagious disease containment, lockdowns will inevitably weaken the economy. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic underscores the trade-off arising from public health and economic cost. An optimal lockdown policy to…

As of December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 75 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. This study develops a novel compartmental epidemiological model specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and…

The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…

We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This…

Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population…

The COVID-19 pandemic underscored a critical need for intervention strategies that balance disease containment with socioeconomic stability. We approach this challenge by designing a framework for modeling and evaluating disease-spread…

We present a modified age-structured SIR model based on known patterns of social contact and distancing measures within Washington, USA. We find that population age-distribution has a significant effect on disease spread and mortality rate,…

We analytically study the SEIR (Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed) epidemic model. The aim is to provide simple analytical expressions for the peak and asymptotic values and their characteristic times of the populations affected by the…

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to…

This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…

I develop a novel macroeconomic epidemiological agent-based model to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic under varying policy scenarios. Agents differ with regard to their profession, family status and age and interact with other…

In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and…

Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic…

We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals' decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an…