相关论文: Bayesian inference of heterogeneous epidemic model…

COVID-19 has been a public health emergency of international concern since early 2020. Reliable forecasting is critical to diminish the impact of this disease. To date, a large number of different forecasting models have been proposed,…

This study presents a new risk-averse multi-stage stochastic epidemics-ventilator-logistics compartmental model to address the resource allocation challenges of mitigating COVID-19. This epidemiological logistics model involves the…

The COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who subsequently die. As COVID-19 disproportionately affects older individuals, age-specific IFR estimates are imperative to facilitate…

The objective of this study is to develop a robust deep learning-based framework to distinguish COVID-19, Community-Acquired Pneumonia (CAP), and Normal cases based on chest CT scans acquired in different imaging centers using various…

Traditionally, the identification of parameters in the formulation and solution of inverse problems considers that models, variables and mathematical parameters are free of uncertainties. This aspect simplifies the estimation process, but…

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…

Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…

With the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of epidemics has been perceived and used as a central element in understanding, predicting, and governing the pandemic event. However, soon it became clear that long term…

This paper introduces new methods to track the offset between two multivariate time series on a continuous basis. We then apply this framework to COVID-19 counts on a state-by-state basis in the United States to determine the progression…

The statistical dynamics of a pathogen within a population depend on a range of factors: population density, the effectiveness and investment into social distancing, public policy measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are…

I present three types of applications of generalized additive models (GAMs) to COVID-19 mortality rates in the US for the purpose of advancing methods to document inequities with respect to which communities suffered disproportionate…

The global spread of COVID-19 had severe consequences for public health and the world economy. The quick onset of the pandemic highlighted the potential benefits of cheap and deployable pre-screening methods to monitor the prevalence of the…

We present an empirical algorithm to forecast the evolution of the number of COVID-19 symptomatic patients in the early stages of the pandemic spread and after strict social distancing interventions. The algorithm is based on a low…

This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic…

Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) is a popular framework for estimating a causal effect in settings where treatment is assigned if an observed covariate exceeds a fixed threshold. We consider estimation and inference in the common…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

The Cox model is an indispensable tool for time-to-event analysis, particularly in biomedical research. However, medicine is undergoing a profound transformation, generating data at an unprecedented scale, which opens new frontiers to study…

Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a…

Recently, the outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world. Due to the large number of affected patients and heavy labor for doctors, computer-aided diagnosis with machine learning algorithm is…

Interaction-driven modeling of diseases over real-world contact data has been shown to promote the understanding of the spread of diseases in communities. This temporal modeling follows the path-preserving order and timing of the contacts,…