相关论文: Likelihood-based solution to the Monty Hall puzzle…

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which…

The Monty Hall problem is a classic probability puzzle known for its counterintuitive solution, revealing fundamental discrepancies between mathematical reasoning and human intuition. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel explanatory…

We propose a new approach to solve the classical Monty Hall problem in its general form. The solution is based on basic tools of probability theory, by defining three elementary events which decompose the sample space into a partition. The…

I argue that we must distinguish between: (0) the Three-Doors-Problem Problem [sic], which is to make sense of some real world question of a real person. (1) a large number of solutions to this meta-problem, i.e., many specific…

The rational solution of the Monty Hall problem unsettles many people. Most people, including the authors, think it feels wrong to switch the initial choice of one of the three doors, despite having fully accepted the mathematical proof for…

The Monty Hall problem is the TV game scenario where you, the contestant, are presented with three doors, with a car hidden behind one and goats hidden behind the other two. After you select a door, the host (Monty Hall) opens a second door…

Game versions of the Monty Hall Problem are discussed. The focus is on the principle of eliminating the dominated strategies, both in the zero-sum and noncooperative formulations.

We emphasize the dominance in the Monty Hall problem, both in the classical scenario and its multi-door generalization. This is used to show optimality of the class of always-switching strategies for nonuniform allocation of the prize and…

The Monty Hall problem is notorious for its deceptive simplicity. Although today it is widely used as a provocative thought experiment to introduce Bayesian thinking to students of probability, in the not so distant past it was rejected by…

People reason heuristically in situations resembling inferential puzzles such as Bertrand's box paradox and the Monty Hall problem. The practical significance of that fact for economic decision making is uncertain because a departure from…

We study the famous mathematical puzzle of prisoners and hats. We introduce a framework in which various variants of the problem can be formalized. We examine three particular versions of the problem (each one in fact a class of problems)…

A quantum version of the Monty Hall problem is proposed inspired by an experimentally-feasible, quantum-optical set-up that resembles the classical game. The expected payoff of the player is studied by analyzing the classical expectation…

We consider a quantum version of a well-known statistical decision problem, whose solution is, at first sight, counter-intuitive to many. In the quantum version a continuum of possible choices (rather than a finite set) has to be…

A puzzle about prisoners trying to identify the color of a hat on their head leads to a version where there are k more hats than prisoners. This generalized puzzle is related to the independence number of the arrangement graph A(m, n) and…

The Monty Hal problem is an attractive puzzle. It combines simple statement with answers that seem surprising to most audiences. The problem was thoroughly solved over two decades ago. Yet, more recent discussions indicate that the solution…

Here, we present the quantum version of a very famous statistical decision problem, whose classical version is counter-intuitive to many. The Monty Hall game can be phrased as a two person game between Alice and Bob. In their pioneering…

We consider a generalization of the classical 100 Prisoner problem and its variant, involving empty boxes, whereby winning probabilities for a team depend on the number of attempts, as well as on the number of winners. We call this the…

I think we can agree that dealing with uncertainty is not easy. Probability is the main tool for dealing with uncertainty, and we know there are many probability-related puzzles and paradoxes. Here I describe a rather idiosyncratic…

Consider the following game: You are given two indistinguishable envelopes, each containing money. One contains twice as much as the other. You may pick one envelope and keep the money it contains. Having chosen an envelope, you are given…

This paper argues that a combined treatment of probabilities, time and actions is essential for an appropriate logical account of the notion of probability; and, based on this intuition, describes an expressive probabilistic temporal logic…