相关论文: Synergy in fertility forecasting: Improving foreca…

We provide a comprehensive examination of the predictive performance of panel forecasting methods based on individual, pooling, fixed effects, and empirical Bayes estimation, and propose optimal weights for forecast combination schemes. We…

Delivering precise point and distributional forecasts across a spectrum of prediction horizons represents a significant and enduring challenge in the application of time-series forecasting within various industries. Prior research on…

In model development, model calibration and validation play complementary roles toward learning reliable models. In this article, we expand the Bayesian Validation Metric framework to a general calibration and validation framework by…

Global warming leads to the increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes that cause tremendous loss of lives and property. Accurate long-range climate prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for…

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This…

Wind power forecasting is essential for managing daily operations at wind farms and enabling market operators to manage power uncertainty effectively in demand planning. This paper explores advanced cross-temporal forecasting models and…

This paper considers forecasts of the growth and inflation distributions of the United Kingdom with factor-augmented quantile autoregressions under a model averaging framework. We investigate model combinations across models using weights…

Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…

Forecast combination involves using multiple forecasts to create a single, more accurate prediction. Recently, feature-based forecasting has been employed to either select the most appropriate forecasting models or to optimize the weights…

For estimating area-specific parameters (quantities) in a finite population, a mixed model prediction approach is attractive. However, this approach strongly depends on the normality assumption of the response values although we often…

Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's…

In a regression model, prediction is typically performed after model selection. The large variability in the model selection makes the prediction unstable. Thus, it is essential to reduce the variability in model selection and improve…

Production forecasting is a key step to design the future development of a reservoir. A classical way to generate such forecasts consists in simulating future production for numerical models representative of the reservoir. However,…

Model merging aims to build a multi-task learner by combining the parameters of individually fine-tuned models without additional training. While a straightforward approach is to average model parameters across tasks, this often results in…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular technique for facilitating valid predictive inference across a spectrum of machine learning models, under minimal assumption of exchangeability. Recently, Hoff (2023) showed that full conformal…

Merging models becomes a fundamental procedure in some applications that consider model efficiency and robustness. The training randomness or Non-I.I.D. data poses a huge challenge for averaging-based model fusion. Previous research efforts…

As the frontiers of applied statistics progress through increasingly complex experiments we must exploit increasingly sophisticated inferential models to analyze the observations we make. In order to avoid misleading or outright erroneous…

Recent state-of-the-art forecasting methods are trained on collections of time series. These methods, often referred to as global models, can capture common patterns in different time series to improve their generalization performance.…

We study the well known difficult problem of prediction in measurement error models. By targeting directly at the prediction interval instead of the point prediction, we construct a prediction interval by providing estimators of both the…