相关论文: Synergy in fertility forecasting: Improving foreca…

This paper provides a review of model selection and model averaging methods for multinomial probit models estimated using the MACML approach. The proposed approaches are partitioned into test based methods (mostly derived from the…

In this paper we construct optimal designs for frequentist model averaging estimation. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the model averaging estimate with fixed weights in the case where the competing models are non-nested and none…

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the…

Using a time series model to mimic an observed time series has a long history. However, with regard to this objective, conventional estimation methods for discrete-time dynamical models are frequently found to be wanting. In fact, they are…

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…

Weighting procedures are used in observational causal inference to adjust for covariate imbalance within the sample. Common practice for inference is to estimate robust standard errors from a weighted regression of outcome on treatment.…

Delivering useful hydrological forecasts is critical for urban and agricultural water management, hydropower generation, flood protection and management, drought mitigation and alleviation, and river basin planning and management, among…

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…

Accuracy of crop price forecasting techniques is important because it enables the supply chain planners and government bodies to take appropriate actions by estimating market factors such as demand and supply. In emerging economies such as…

Ensemble methods are widely employed to improve generalization in machine learning. This has also prompted the adoption of ensemble learning for the knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models in performing link prediction. Typical approaches to…

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a…

This article considers ultrahigh-dimensional forecasting problems with survival response variables. We propose a two-step model averaging procedure for improving the forecasting accuracy of the true conditional mean of a survival response…

Enhancing the robustness and accuracy of time series forecasting models is an active area of research. Recently, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have found extensive applications in many practical forecasting problems. However, the…

Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

There has been increasing interest in recent years in the development of approaches to estimate causal effects when the number of potential confounders is prohibitively large. This growth in interest has led to a number of potential…

Ensemble models can be used to estimate prediction uncertainties in machine learning models. However, an ensemble of N models is approximately N times more computationally demanding compared to a single model when it is used for inference.…

We introduce a novel approach for comparing out-of-sample multi-step forecasts obtained from a pair of nested models that is based on the forecast encompassing principle. Our proposed approach relies on an alternative way of testing the…

Accurate time series forecasting is critical for a wide range of problems with temporal data. Ensemble modeling is a well-established technique for leveraging multiple predictive models to increase accuracy and robustness, as the…