相关论文: COVID-19: What If Immunity Wanes?

We study an infection-age structured epidemic model in which both the infectivity and the rate of loss of immunity depend on the time-since-infection. The model can be equivalently viewed as a nonlinear renewal equation for the incidence of…

We analyze the spread of COVID-19 by considering the transmission of the disease among individuals both within and between regions. A set of regions can be defined as any partition of a population such that travel/social contact within each…

Mitigation measures are essential for controlling the spread of infectious diseases during pandemics and epidemics, but they impose considerable societal, individual, and economic costs. We developed a general optimization framework to…

I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how four basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the numbers of sensitive (S) and infectious individuals(I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to…

We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

The COVID-19 vaccine reduces infection risk: even if one contracts COVID-19, the probability of complications like death or hospitalization is lower. However, vaccination may prompt people to decrease preventive behaviors, such as staying…

A quantitative COVID-19 model that incorporates hidden asymptomatic patients is developed, and an analytic solution in parametric form is given. The model incorporates the impact of lockdown and resulting spatial migration of population due…

A novel Coronavirus pandemic emerged in December of 2019, causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antiviral, strategies for mitigating the burden of the pandemic are…

I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the…

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal…

Behavioral responses to pandemics are less shaped by actual mortality or hospitalization risks than they are by risk attitudes. We explore human mobility patterns as a measure of behavioral responses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our…

We study the extinction of epidemics in a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where a susceptible individual becomes infected with the rate $\lambda$ when contacting $m$ infective individual(s) simultaneously, and an…

Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…

Faced with a dangerous epidemic humans will spontaneously social distance to reduce their risk of infection at a socio-economic cost. Compartmentalised epidemic models have been extended to include this endogenous decision making:…

Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…

The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…

In this paper, we provide insights on how much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19. To this end, we develop a compartmental model that accounts for key aspects of the disease: 1) incubation time, 2) age-dependent…

We study equilibrium distancing during epidemics. Distancing reduces the individual's probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. It creates a single-peaked epidemic, flattens the curve and decreases the size of the epidemic. We…

We investigate how a population's natural and vaccine immunity affects the competitive balance between two strains of an infectious disease with different epidemiological characteristics. Specifically, we consider the case where one strain…

A pandemic, the worldwide spread of a disease, can threaten human beings from the social as well as biological perspectives and paralyze existing living habits. To stave off the more devastating disaster and return to a normal life, people…