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No matter its source, financial- or policy-related, uncertainty can feed onto itself, inflicting the real economic sector, altering expectations and behaviours, and leading to identification challenges in empirical applications. The strong…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2021-02-15 Emanuele Bacchiocchi , Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina

Monetary integration has both costs and benefits. Europeans have a strong aversion to exchange rate instability. From this perspective, the EMS has shown its limits and full monetary union involving a single currency appears to be a…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2018-07-23 Chris Kirrane

In this paper, we assess how the stability of financial networks is affected by interconnectedness considering its tiniest variation: the edge. We compute the impact of edges as the percentage difference in the systemic risk (SR) of the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2025-10-06 Michel Alexandre , Thiago Christiano Silva , Francisco A. Rodrigues

We study the diffusion of shocks in the global financial cycle and global liquidity conditions to emerging and developing economies. We show that the classification according to their external trade patterns (as commodities' net exporters…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2021-12-09 Jorge Carrera , Gabriel Montes-Rojas , Fernando Toledo

This study estimates the risk contributions of individual European countries regarding the indemnity payments in agricultural insurance. We model the total risk exposure as an insurance portfolio where each country is unique in terms of its…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2020-03-13 Osman Gulseven , Kasirga Yildirak

The presence of \b{eta}-convergence in European regions is an important issue to be analyzed. In this paper, we adopt a quantile regression approach in analyzing economic convergence. While previous work has performed quantile regression at…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-06-12 Alfredo Cartone , Geoffrey JD Hewings , Paolo Postiglione

Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-01-22 Graziano Moramarco

The process of European integration resulted in a marked increase in transnational economic flows, yet regional inequalities along many developmental indicators remain. We analyze the unevenness of European economies with respect to the…

经济学 · 定量金融 2017-11-08 Balazs Vedres , Carl Nordlund

It is commonly believed that financial crises "lead to" lower growth of a country during the two-year recession period, which can be reflected by their post-crisis GDP growth. However, by contrasting a causal model with a standard…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-11-14 Kaiwen Hou , David Hou , Yang Ouyang , Lulu Zhang , Aster Liu

The study and measurement of economic resilience is ruled by high level of complexity related to the diverse structure, functionality, spatiality, and dynamics describing economic systems. Towards serving the demand of integration, this…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2022-02-18 Dimitrios Tsiotas

The goal of this research is to uncover the channels through which research and development (R&D) impacts economic growth in developing countries. The study employed nine variables from three broader categories in the World Economic Forum…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2025-09-25 Ayusha Fayyaz , Zoltan Bartha

In this study, we introduce an analytics framework, the Bank Risk Interlinkage with Dynamic Graph and Event Simulations (BRIDGES), to capture the systemic risks associated with the growing economic influence of the BRICS nations. This…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2026-04-16 Haibo Wang

Conventional economic analysis of stringent climate change mitigation policy generally concludes various levels of economic slowdown as a result of substantial spending on low carbon technology. Equilibrium economics however could not…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2015-01-29 J. F. Mercure , H. Pollitt , U. Chewpreecha , P. Salas , A. Foley , P. B. Holden , N. R. Edwards

A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of…

经济学 · 定量金融 2016-08-24 Jeroen Rozendaal , Yannick Malevergne , Didier Sornette

To model the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy, a novel discrete-time, uncertain, infinite time horizon, dynamic game model is developed, where the uncertainties of expectations are modeled by unknown nonlinear but quadratically…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-19 Ilona Cserháti , Éva Gyurkovics , Tibor Takács

The European Union (EU) has been pursuing new cyber security policies in recent years. This paper presents a short reflection of four such policies. The focus is on potential incoherency, meaning a lack of integration, divergence between…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2024-09-30 Jukka Ruohonen

This work proposes an augmented variant of DebtRank with uncertainty intervals as a method to investigate and assess systemic risk in financial networks, in a context of incomplete data. The algorithm is tested against a default contagion…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2014-12-05 Stefano Gurciullo

In this article, I consider the issues of financial resource shortage, the limited possibility of attracting bank loans, and business risk. All these problems constrain the development of entrepreneurship. Objectives I aim to determine a…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2022-02-02 Elena G. Demidova

In normal times, it is assumed that financial institutions operating in non-overlapping sectors have complementary and distinct outcomes, typically reflected in mostly uncorrelated outcomes and asset returns. Such is the reasoning behind…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2021-01-19 Sayuj Choudhari , Richard Licheng Zhu

This paper explores various socioeconomic factors that contribute to individual financial success using machine learning algorithms and approaches. Financial success, a critical aspect of all individual's well-being, is a complex concept…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-09 Michael Zhou , Ramin Ramezani