相关论文: Wisdom of crowds: much ado about nothing

Complex decision-making systems rarely have direct access to the current state of the world and they instead rely on opinions to form an understanding of what the ground truth could be. Even in problems where experts provide opinions…

Neither artificial intelligence designed to play Turing's imitation game, nor augmented intelligence built to maximize the human manipulation of information are tuned to accelerate innovation and improve humanity's collective advance…

Can we predict top-performing products, services, or businesses by only monitoring the behavior of a small set of individuals? Although most previous studies focused on the predictive power of "hub" individuals with many social contacts,…

Crowds can often make better decisions than individuals or small groups of experts by leveraging their ability to aggregate diverse information. Question answering sites, such as Stack Exchange, rely on the "wisdom of crowds" effect to…

Human groups are able to converge on more accurate beliefs through deliberation, even in the presence of polarization and partisan bias -- a phenomenon known as the "wisdom of partisan crowds." Generated agents powered by Large Language…

Every day, we judge the probability of propositions. When we communicate graded confidence (e.g. "I am 90% sure"), we enable others to gauge how much weight to attach to our judgment. Ideally, people should share their judgments to reach…

In 1907, Sir Francis Galton independently asked 787 villagers to estimate the weight of an ox. Although none of them guessed the exact weight, the average estimate was remarkably accurate. This phenomenon is known as wisdom of crowds. In a…

In a crowd forecasting system, aggregation is an algorithm that returns aggregated probabilities for each question based on the probabilities provided per question by each individual in the crowd. Various aggregation methods have been…

Scholars have increasingly investigated "crowdsourcing" as an alternative to expert-based judgment or purely data-driven approaches to predicting the future. Under certain conditions, scholars have found that crowdsourcing can outperform…

Recommender systems recommend objects regardless of potential adverse effects of their overcrowding. We address this shortcoming by introducing crowd-avoiding recommendation where each object can be shared by only a limited number of users…

Collective intelligence, which aggregates the shared information from large crowds, is often negatively impacted by unreliable information sources with the low quality data. This becomes a barrier to the effective use of collective…

In this paper we present a mathematical model for collaborative filtering implementation in stock market predictions. In popular literature collaborative filtering, also known as Wisdom of Crowds, assumes that group has a greater knowledge…

Even though the forecasting literature agrees that aggregating multiple predictions of some future outcome typically outperforms the individual predictions, there is no general consensus about the right way to do this. Most common…

The FIFA Men's World Cup Tournament (WCT) is the most important football (soccer) competition, attracting worldwide attention. A popular practice among football fans in Brazil is to organize contests in which each participant informs…

We analyze the accuracy of collective decision-making in socially connected populations, where agents update binary choices through local interactions on a network. Each agent receives a private signal that is biased -- even marginally --…

There are many examples of 'wisdom of the crowd' effects in which the large number of participants imparts confidence in the collective judgment of the crowd. But how do we form an aggregated judgment when the size of the crowd is limited?…

We show how the quality of decisions based on the aggregated opinions of the crowd can be conveniently studied using a sample of individual responses to a standard IQ questionnaire. We aggregated the responses to the IQ questionnaire using…

How do we design and deploy crowdsourced prediction platforms for real-world applications where risk is an important dimension of prediction performance? To answer this question, we conducted a large online Wisdom of the Crowd study where…

The Condorcet Jury Theorem or the Miracle of Aggregation are frequently invoked to ensure the competence of some aggregate decision-making processes. In this article we explore an estimation of the prior probability of the thesis predicted…

The wisdom of the crowd has long become the de facto approach for eliciting information from individuals or experts in order to predict the ground truth. However, classical democratic approaches for aggregating individual \emph{votes} only…