相关论文: Epidemic response to physical distancing policies …

In this article, we investigate the importance of demographic and contact patterns in determining the spread of COVID-19 and to the effectiveness of social distancing policies. We investigate these questions proposing an augmented…

The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…

After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis…

This study empirically investigates the complex interplay between the severity of the coronavirus pandemic, mobility changes in retail and recreation, transit stations, workplaces, and residential areas, and lockdown measures in 88…

For preventing the spread of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease COVID-19, social distancing and the isolation of infected persons are crucial. However, existing reaction-diffusion equations for epidemic spreading are incapable of…

Major interventions have been introduced worldwide to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Large-scale lockdowns of human movements are effective in reducing the spread, but they come at a cost of significantly limited societal…

In this paper we analyze the effects of commuting and social inequalities for the epidemic development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). With this aim we consider a SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and dead by disease)…

When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…

In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of measures aimed at finding and isolating infected individuals to contain epidemics like COVID-19, as the suppression induced over the effective reproduction number. We develop a mathematical…

We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…

We study a three-species cyclic model whose organisms are vulnerable to contamination with an infectious disease which propagates person-to-person. We consider that individuals of one species perform an evolutionary self-preservation…

The spread of infectious diseases is often influenced by human mobility across different geographical regions. Although numerous studies have investigated how diseases like SARS and COVID-19 spread from China to various global locations,…

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics…

We study equilibrium distancing during epidemics. Distancing reduces the individual's probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. It creates a single-peaked epidemic, flattens the curve and decreases the size of the epidemic. We…

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population…

We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that an early lockdown shifts the epidemic in time, while that beyond a critical value of the lockdown…

The SARS-CoV-2 infectious outbreak has rapidly spread across the globe and precipitated varying policies to effectuate physical distancing to ameliorate its impact. In this study, we propose a new hybrid machine learning model, SIRNet, for…