相关论文: The Ockham's razor applied to COVID-19 model fitti…

An epidemiological study of deaths is carried out in a dozen countries by analyzing the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. These countries are among those most affected by the first wave, i.e. where daily-death data series may closely…

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases…

COVID-19 is a global health crisis that has had unprecedented, widespread impact on households across the United States and has been declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO) [1]. According to Centers…

Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. They are all publishing the number of new individuals infected, cured and dead, along with…

We generalise the epidemic Renormalisation Group framework while connecting it to a SIR model with time-dependent coefficients. We then confront the model with COVID-19 in Denmark, Germany, Italy and France and show that the approach works…

The continuously growing number of COVID-19 cases pressures healthcare services worldwide. Accurate short-term forecasting is thus vital to support country-level policy making. The strategies adopted by countries to combat the pandemic…

Monitoring the evolution of the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical step in sanitary policy design. Yet, the assessment of the pandemic intensity within the pandemic period remains a challenging task because of the limited quality of…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting 201 countries and territories around the globe. As of April 4, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 11,16,643…

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a homogeneously mixing non constant population, and generalize it to a model where the parameters are given by piecewise constant functions. This allows us to…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the behavioral response to reported case numbers changed drastically over time. While a few dozen cases were enough to trigger government-induced and voluntary contact reduction in early 2020, less than a year…

The COVID-19 pandemic has had worldwide devastating effects on human lives, highlighting the need for tools to predict its development. Dynamics of such public-health threats can often be efficiently analysed through simple models that help…

We have proposed a new form of growth rate for population ecology. Generally, the growth rate is dependent on the size of the population at that particular epoch. We have introduced an alternative time-dependent form of growth rate. This…

A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from…

The COVID-19 outbreak has stimulated the interest in the proposal of novel epidemiological models to predict the course of the epidemic so as to help planning effective control strategies. In particular, in order to properly interpret the…

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted delayed reporting as a significant impediment to effective disease surveillance and decision-making. In the absence of timely data, statistical models which account for delays can be adopted to nowcast…

The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…

The COVID-19 pandemic provided many modeling challenges to investigate the evolution of an epidemic process over areal units. A suitable encompassing model must describe the spatio-temporal variations of the disease infection rate of…

Two stochastic models are proposed to describe the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first model the population is partitioned into four compartments: susceptible $S$, infected $I$, removed $R$ and dead people $D$. In order to have…

During the first months, the Covid-19 pandemic has required most countries to implement complex sequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions, with the aim of controlling the transmission of the virus in the population. To be able to take…

Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 to almost every part of the globe, huge volumes of data and case studies have been made available, providing researchers with a unique opportunity to find trends and make discoveries like never…