相关论文: Did lockdowns serve their purpose?

In this paper, we estimate the impact of national lockdown on COVID-19 related total and daily deaths, per million people, in select European countries. In particular, we compare countries that imposed a nationwide lockdown (Treatment…

Within the context of SEIR models, we consider a lockdown that is both imposed and lifted at an early stage of an epidemic. We show that, in these models, although such a lockdown may delay deaths, it eventually does not avert a significant…

The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are…

Understanding Covid-19 lethality and its variation from country to country is essential for supporting governments in the choice of appropriate strategies. Adopting correct indicators to monitor the lethality of the infection in the course…

Following the highly restrictive measures adopted by many countries for combating the current pandemic, the number of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the associated number of deaths is steadily decreasing. This fact, together with…

This report provides a visual examination of Covid-19 case and death data. In particular, it shows that country specific differences can too a large extend be explained by two easily interpreted parameters. Namely, the delay between…

In a given country, the cumulative death toll of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic follows a sigmoid curve as a function of time. In most cases, the curve is well described by the Gompertz function, which is characterized by two…

This paper estimates the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions - mainly, the lockdown - on the COVID-19 mortality rate for the case of Italy, the first Western country to impose a national shelter-in-place order. We use a new…

Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…

In this article, we deal with COVID-19 data to study the trend of the epidemic at the global situation. Choosing the mortality rate as an appropriate metric which measures the relative relation between the cumulative confirmed cases and…

By the end of May 2020, all states in the US have eased their COVID-19 mitigation measures. Different states adopted markedly different policies and timing for reopening. An important question remains in how the relaxation of mitigation…

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population…

Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which…

COVID-19, a global pandemic of unprecedented scale, has had a profound impact on nations worldwide, resulting in the tragic loss of nearly 1.1 million lives in the United States and a staggering 7 million worldwide. In the absence of…

By fitting a compartment ODE model for Covid-19 propagation to cumulative case and death data for US states and European countries, we find that the case mortality rate seems to have decreased by at least 80% in most of the US and at least…

We adopt an artificial counterfactual approach to assess the impact of lockdowns on the short-run evolution of the number of cases and deaths in some US states. To do so, we explore the different timing in which US states adopted lockdown…

Mobility data at EU scale can help understand the dynamics of the pandemic and possibly limit the impact of future waves. Still, since a reliable and consistent method to measure the evolution of contagion at international level is missing,…

This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave…

In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also…

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…