相关论文: Genetic algorithm with cross validation-based epid…

Addressed in this work is the performance of five popular algorithms, which aim at assessing the dissemination dynamics of the COVID-19 disease on the basis of the time series of new confirmed cases. The tests are based on simulated data,…

COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection…

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19 has been leading the world into a prominent crisis. As of May 19, 2020, the virus had spread to 215 countries with more than 4,622,001 confirmed cases and 311,916 reported deaths worldwide,…

We present a general framework for adaptive allocation of viral tests in social contact networks. We pose and solve several complementary problems. First, we consider the design of a social sensing system whose objective is the early…

The investment of time and resources for better strategies and methodologies to tackle a potential pandemic is key to deal with potential outbreaks of new variants or other viruses in the future. In this work, we recreated the scene of a…

Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…

Whenever countries are threatened by a pandemic, as is the case with the COVID-19 virus, governments should take the right actions to safeguard public health as well as to mitigate the negative effects on the economy. In this regard, there…

This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…

In the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a wide range of epidemiological modelling approaches have been used to predict the effective reproduction number, R(t), and other COVID-19 related measures such as the daily rate of exponential growth, r(t).…

Daily pandemic surveillance, often achieved through the estimation of the reproduction number, constitutes a critical challenge for national health authorities to design countermeasures. In an earlier work, we proposed to formulate the…

In general, we can not use algebraic or enumerative methods to optimize a quality control (QC) procedure so as to detect the critical random and systematic analytical errors with stated probabilities, while the probability for false…

We developed a model and a software package for stochastic simulations of transmission of COVID-19 and other similar infectious diseases, that takes into account contact network structures and geographical distribution of population…

The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…

Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…

In this work, the SIR epidemiological model is reformulated so to highlight the important {\em effective reproduction number}, as well as to account for the {\em generation time}, inverse of the {\em incidence rate}, and the {\em infectious…

We propose a genetic algorithm (GA) for hyperparameter optimization of artificial neural networks which includes chromosomal crossover as well as a decoupling of parameters (i.e., weights and biases) from hyperparameters (e.g., learning…

It is well established that people with diabetes are more likely to have serious complications from COVID-19. Nearly 1 in 5 COVID-19 deaths in the African region are linked to diabetes. World Health Organization (WHO) finds that 18.3% of…

This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…

The effective reproduction number, R(t), is a central point in the study of infectious diseases. It establishes in an explicit way the extent of an epidemic spread process in a population. The current estimation methods for the time…

Our research focuses on developing a computational framework to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the development of a system named ADRIANA for the simulation using South Africa as a case study. The design…